Hybrids Down, But Not Out In September as Clunker Cash Flees Market.
By John O'Dell October 2, 2009
By John O'Dell, Senior Editor
The cash for clunkers frenzy that pulled many hybrid shoppers into the market earlier than they'd intended in July and August caused a big letdown in September as sales of gas-electric cars and trucks, which had been rising steadily all year, plunged 48.4 percent.
Only 19,977 hybrids were sold in September, down from 38,701 in August. The sales slide was the first in several months and was worse that that of the far larger conventional vehicle segment, which dropped by 40.9 percent from August.
Falling sales of the Toyota Prius - they were down 42 percent for the month - contributed heavily to the numeric decline although almost every hybrid model lost ground.
On a month over month basis there were no corporate winners in the hybrid segment as even Toyota - the industry leader with three out of every four hybrid sales - saw a 39.7 percent decline in its Toyota and Lexus hybrids.
And that was the segment's best performance.
Lots of Losers
Nissan, which has been on a tear with its single offering, the Altima hybrid sedan (helped by generous incentives in recent moths), saw its hybrid sales plunge 89.1 percent in September; Honda, the number two hybrid company, saw sales fall 61.6 percent; Ford, which had been rising since the March introduction of its Fusion hybrid sedan, was off 54.5 percent, and GM's hybrid sales fell by 40.8 percent.
Compared to sales at the end of the third-quarter last year- when the financial industry collapse began and the bottom fell out of the auto market, the picture was a little better as hybrid sales last month were down just 4.1 percent from September '08.
In contrast, conventional car sales fell 22.5 percent in the September-September comparison.
GM's hybrid sales were down 48.3 per cent last month from the prior September; Nissan was off 26.6 percent, Honda fell 6 percent and Toyota dipped 5.3 percent. Ford, which didn't have the Fusion or its first cousin, the Mercury Milan hybrid, to help bolster September '08 sales, was the only winner, posting a 116 percent increase thanks largely to the new models.
New Sells, Sometimes
There was a significant shift among the middle group of companies selling hybrids, said Edmunds.com analyst Ivan Drury, a testimony to the power of new models to generate excitement even in a badly damaged market.
"Looking at the hybrid market compared to last September, Toyota continues to maintain close to 74% of all sales - its new Lexus HS250 hybrid (left) helping offset the decline in Camry hybrid sales, over the period - and Ford, with the new Fusion, has pulled into second place with an 11 percent share, up from 5 percent a year ago" he said.
The exception is Honda, whose new Insight compact hybrid hasn't done as well as the company had hoped and is failing to fill in the hole cause by sagging Civic hybrid sales.
Honda's September hybrid market share was 8 percent, down from 10 percent in September '08.
GM, which launched the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra dual-mode pickups in February, has had little luck with them. But the trucks are expensive and represent a very small piece of GM's hybrid portfolio, selling in the double digits most months.
The company's decision to sell its Saturn brand also hurt sales of the Aura hybrid sedan and Vue Greenline mild-hybrid SUV
So even with the two new hybrid pickups, GM's September market share fell to 5 percent from 9 percent.
Nissan remained stable with about 2 percent of the hybrid market.
Cars Vs.Trucks - No Contest
Wildly varying incentives and the so-called pull-ahead effect of the cash for clunkers program make it difficult to see a pattern in hybrid sales performance.
One thing that does shows though the murkiness, said Drury, is that the volume hybrids, even in a down market with relatively cheap gasoline ($2.50 a gallon nationally in September), are passenger cars, not trucks.
"Car-based hybrids, by a wide margin, outsold truck-based hybrids last month," he said.
While cars account for 55 percent of the hybrid nameplates in the market (12 of 22), they account for 84 percent of hybrid sales.
In the conventional passenger vehicle segment, cars account for 53 percent of sales.
The lower cost and higher fuel economy of the passenger car hybrids versus truck hybrids appears to be the main reason for the imbalance and could be setting the market up for a correction.
Consumers might be seeing some sales bargains in coming months if dealers see inventories of hybrid pickups and SUVs building up, Drury said.
Ford
Ford saw steep August to September declines in all of its hybrid model lines, the Escape SUV hybrid down 54 percent and its Mercury Mariner cousin off 77 percent, while the Fusion hybrid sedan was down 53 percent and sales of the Mercury Milan hybrid sedan dropped 40 percent.
It was the second consecutive decline for the Escape and Fusion after big July increases in the first month of the cash for clunkers program.
GM
Despite its industry-leading menu of eight hybrid models, GM hasn't done well - its dual mode trucks and SUVs too pricey for a recession-wracked economy and its car models lacking the luster of their competitors.
Both the Chevy Tahoe and GMC Yukon hybrids SUVs did post gains in September over August, but not nearly enough to overcome big declines by the other models.
The Tahoe was up 21 percent and the Yukon rose 14 percent, but sales of the Vue Greenline SUV plunged 78 percent; the Chevy Malibu hybrid sedan was down 65 percent; the Saturn Aura hybrid sedan was off by 54 percent; the Chevy Silverado hybrid pickup fell 52 percent; its GMC Sierra twin was down 33 percent; and Cadillac Escalade SUV hybrid sales dropped by12 percent.
Honda
Honda's new Insight hybrid, introduced to great fanfare in March as the hybrid for everyone, has failed woefully to meet first-year sales projections and, after a big jump in August - induced by clunker cash - sales plummeted 59 percent in September.
The company's Civic hybrid fared worse, falling 79 percent from August.
Drury believes the lower-priced Insight, although slightly smaller, is cannibalizing Civic hybrid sales. Indeed, the model has almost fallen off the charts as sales - which hit a monthly high for the year of 3,361 in March, plunged to just 152 in September.
Nissan
It's a one-trick pony in the hybrid segment, but the tricks had been pretty good until last month, when sales of Nissan's Altima hybrid sedan - sold in only nine states to help Nissan meet their strict air quality rules - dropped 89 percent.
The plunge came after usually high August sales that exaggerated the percentage of decline, but September still wound up as the second-worst month of the year for Altima hybrid sales.
Toyota
Despite a 42 percent decline from clunker cash-swollen August sales, Toyota's Prius retained its role as the nation's most popular hybrid with 10,984 sales accounting for 55 percent of the entire September hybrid segment.
Lexus and Toyota brand sales combined for a commanding 73 percent chunk of the hybrid market, up from 63 percent in August's larger market.
The star of the corporate stable in September was Lexus' new entry-level hybrid, the H250, with a 129 percent gain from August - it's first month on the market.
The only other gainer under the Toyota motor Corp. banner was the super low-volume LS 600h L - Lexus' hybrid mini-limo - that posted a 20 percent increase with sales of just 12 models.
On the negative side of the luxe ledger, the Lexus GS450h dropped 21 percent; and sales of the Lexus RX 400h crossover were down 33 percent.
On the Toyota side things were worse, the Highlander SUV hybrid posting a 78 percent sales drop and the Camry hybrid off 59 percent, both making the Prius' 42 percent decline look almost good in comparison.
Hybrid Sales
September 2009; August 2009; September 2008
Ford
Ford Escape - 787; 1,711; 889.
Mercury Mariner - 91; 391; 101.
Ford Fusion - 1,116; 2,353; NA.
Mercury Milan - 144; 240; NA .
GM
Chevrolet Malibu - 156; 441; 382.
Chevrolet Silverado - 79; 165; NA.
GMC Sierra - 41; 61; NA.
Chevrolet Tahoe - 280; 222; 636.
GMC Yukon - 146; 126; 374.
Cadillac Escalade - 189; 214; NA.
Saturn Aura - 30; 65; 31.
Saturn Vue Greenline - 90; 414; 443.
Honda
Civic - 152; 717; 2,020.
Insight - 1,746; 4,226; NA .
Nissan
Altima - 345; 3,164; 470.
Toyota
Lexus HS250 - 1,242; 543; NA.
Lexus GS460h - 38; 48; 29.
Lexus LS 600h L - 12; 10; 47.
Lexus RX 450h - 1,168; 1,754; 744.
Toyota Camry - 872; 2,114; 2,785.
Toyota Highlander - 269; 1,171; 921.
Toyota Prius - 10,984; 18,886; 10,873.
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