EVs, Solar Power and National Energy Policy: Bob Stempel Looks Ahead
By John O'Dell December 31, 2009Former GM Chairman Turned Alternative Power Advocate Sees U.S. at Tipping Point
As 2009 winds own and 2010 dawns with the auto industry, finally, abuzz with talk of alternatives, we thought we'd turn to a guy whose been there and not only done that but still is doing it for a take on how things look.
The guy is Robert C. Stempel, the 76-year old former president and chairman of General Motors Corp. - forced out in 1992 in a boardroom putsch only to land on his feet as chairman of battery-maker Energy Control Devices and now as partner with longtime associate Stanford Ovshinsky in a solar systems and hydrogen storage development venture called Ovshinsky Innovation.
----------Bob in Brief:
- Hybrids and all-electric vehicles are here to stay.
- Solar energy can speed the way.
- Gas prices won't stay cheap.
- The U.S. needs a national energy policy to remain globally competitive.
Who says old dogs can't learn new tricks.
What Stempel hasn't had since his elevation to GM's chairmanship in 1990 is a bona fide hit - a company that makes money selling a top-notch, widely accepted product.
He's hoping his latest venture with Ovshinsky (right in photo above) - founder of both Energy Control Devices and Ovshinsky Innovation - will change all that.
Stempel wanted to talk about solar energy development, but we persuaded him to lend his years of experience to an assessment of the automotive future before settling into role of corporate pitchman.
He predicted that we'll be seeing a lot more hybrids and extended-range plug-ins such as the Chevrolet Volt- the new federal fuel economy rules requiring a 35.5 mpg fleet average by 2016 will demand that kind of advanced technology approach.
And he sees 2010 as the dawn of the age of electric transportation.
"Alternative energy is one of the top topics in a lot of people's minds these days," he said. "EVs and hybrids are the talk of the big auto shows," replacing hype about horsepower; "we're just not looking at these kinds of cars as gimmicks anymore, they're real."
National Policy Needed
Stempel says that to help it all come together, though, a lot of public assistance is going to be needed - partly in the form of incentives to help underwrite the high cost of advancing new technologies into the market, but more to set the national agenda.
"We need a national energy policy. I went through this (oil crunches and fuel price spirals) in 1973 and again in the late '80s, and each time we were going to get a national policy, then gas prices fell and we didn't."
The cyclical natural of crude oil shortages - real of politically contrived - means that they will continue happening, though, and Stempel says this is probably one of the best times in history to get the Congress to buckle down and consider a cohesive, forward-looking national policy.
"We need to stop having the invention of the day and decide where we are going to put our money, which technologies to back."
The Obama administration "made one good move in getting California to go along with a national emissions standard" for greenhouse gases, he said - referring to a recent agreement by the state to fold its controversial automotive CO2 regulations into a national plan being developed by the EPA.
"Now is the time for Obama and his administration to really finish this and get us a real national energy policy."
As for his own efforts, Stempel said he is spending most of his time with Ovshinsky readying for market the company's process for thin-film photovoltaic panels.
New Solar Panel Process
Typical solar panels are made of hundreds of thin photovoltaic cell "wafers" wired together and sandwiched between silicon-rich glass panels.
Ovsinski Innovations has developed a thin film process in which the film is a continuous photovoltaic surface capable of turning sunlight into electricity.
Others are working on the same type of product, Stempel says, claiming that the Ovshinsky process is much farther along than the competitions.
"We are developing a machine that applies the film to the panel as a continuous solar cell," he said, "a turn-key solar panel manufacturing system" that the company hopes to license to others or sell complete to an outside investor.
One selling point, he said, will be that while the industry standard for solar panel production is $2 per watt, "we're very optimistic we can get the production cost down to $1 a watt. We're not ready to make an announcement, yet, but everything is looking good."
In addition to commercial and residential power applications - and solar chargers for EV batteries - the thin film process results in a flexible, moldable material that can be applied to the roofs of cars, for instance to produce auxiliary power on sunny days for running cooling fans.
Hydrogen Storage
Stempel also continues working with Ovshinsky on the duo's decade-long search to perfect a storage medium for hydrogen that would permit fuel-cell electric cars to carry far more of the gas than is no possible with pressurized cylindrical tanks.
Such a breakthrough would dramatically increase the range of fuel cell vehicles and just as dramatically reduce the investment necessary to provide a national network of hydrogen fuel stations.
He also serves as a board member of the Electric Drive Transportation Association, the Washington-based trade and lobbying group devoted to promoting electric vehicles of all types.
EVs Now
It's what he has to do, he said, to back up his conviction that we're on the edge of a new age of electrically driven cars and trucks.
China, with a central government that controls both politics and business and is quickly becoming a fierce competitor on the world economic stage, has decided that electrification is the way to go and can make that decision stick, Stempel said.
"We've got to do the same" with a national energy policy and focus to remain competitive, he said.
The mission of the EDTA, Stempelsaid, "is to help see to it that as many components as possible are standardized to help bring down costs, and to make sure that every American understand that electric drive is very real."
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I see hydrogen storage and solar (even wind) working together. Run the vehicles on hydrogen that is distilled primarily from locally captured solar/wind energies. Smaller distillers can easily fit in a home garage.
Hydrogen, not battery is the way to go. (No one wants to wait hours to refuel. Semi trucks can't afford the batteries or their weight needed for long distance hauling of heavy loads. And the environmental impact from battery production/disposal is horrible.)
Natural gas and nuclear will still be needed for the foreseeable future as a substitute for coal for dark/still times and until sufficient hydrogen storage can be built. Of course local climate trends will dictate how much storage/grid power is still needed.
With local production of zero fuel power and smart grid/appliances, the demand for grid power could end up being extremely small. Domestic nameplates build overseas and for overseas markets too. Only about 10% of the energy produced at a power plant ends up doing useful work with today's technology. And remember those big power plants don't stop running when hourly or daily demand goes down.
Dear Mr. O'Dell:
It is astonishing that you would post such an irresponsible "story." You should be ashamed of yourself.
First, the picture you are showing is 10 years old. The picture shows the unfortunate NiMH propulsion batteries that OBC tried to market through their JV with GM (then with Chevron). Mr. Stempel and Mr. Ovshinsky tried to sell these things for years, but all they could achieve were mind-boggling losses (unlike PEVE and Sanyo, who do make decent NiMH batteries). Oh, yeah, and they managed to ruin the entire 2007 hybrid production of General Motors by supplying leaking batteries that had to be recalled. That was just one of the reasons why these two gentlemen were forced to "retire."
Second, Ovshinsky Innovation is clearly a scam. Take a look at their web page: http://ovshinskyinnovation.com/ . Does it look like these two characters, waiting for their "non-competes" with ECD to expire, have any understanding of technology, be it automotive or solar?
Third, typical solar panels are NOT made of "hundreds of thin photovoltaic cell 'wafers'" - the number of cells in a module is typically less than a 100.
Fourth, Ovshinsky Innovations has NOT developed any thin film process in "which the film is a continuous photovoltaic surface capable of turning sunlight into electricity" and obviously does NOT offer a commercial product. ECD, from which these two gentlemen "retired," has had a process to manufacture such surface and a commercial product at least since 1997. Unfortunately, the product does not sell well, for many reasons, and ECD is losing money and firing 20% of its workers. There are other companies that have developed better "continuous" processes and offer actual products (Ascent, Xunlight, Powerfilm, Konarka, Flexcell, etc), but unfortunately, none of those can effectively compete with regular crystalline panels, at least, not yet.
Fifth, Mr. Stempel is absolutely clueless about the "the industry standard for solar panel production." Not a big surprise here! Cost of manufacturing for crystalline panels is approaching $1.40 or so per Watt (much less than his $2 per Watt), and for First Solar's thin-film panels the cost is already 85c per Watt. Mr. Stempel's imaginary "$1 per Watt" cost of manufacturing is already obsolete, even if their "process" can achieve 11% conversion efficiency on module level (which it can't). Mr. Stempel, unfortunately, has lost his story-telling edge.
Sixth, the hydrogen "storage" does not even deserve a comment.
Happy New Year, with the hope that you will refrain from spreading misinformation in the future!
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