Experts Differ on America's Ability to Put 1M Plug-in Hybrids on U.S. Roads by 2015

Experts Differ on America's Ability to Put 1M Plug-in Hybrids on U.S. Roads by 2015

By Scott Doggett December 4, 2009

At an energy security panel held Thursday, alternative-fuel advocates and security experts wrestled over the feasibility of getting 1 million plug-in hybrid cars on American roads by 2015, a goal Barack Obama set while campaigning for the presidency.

Cheap, light, high-performance batteries are needed to make electric cars widely available. But mass-producing these batteries requires a steady stream of certain minerals, and the availability of these minerals left one expert doubtful of Obama's goal.

"If we're not going to address the materials requirements for the batteries, there will not be an electric future," said Gal Luft, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. "You make bread, you can have all the flour in the world ... if you don't have the yeast, you will not have the bread."

Meeting Obama's goal, he calculated, would take about 6,000 tons of lithium carbonate - a massive share of the 15,000 tons used worldwide each year.

Many have considered lithium a strategic "green" commodity, since lithium-ion batteries have gained attention as a possible low-cost option for cars. Bolivia has about a third of the world's reserves of lithium - and frigid relations with the United States, Luft noted.

He also cited "rare earth" elements, a family of metals that find their way into various products, including computers and wind turbines, but also electric vehicles. China is thought to produce at least 90 percent of these materials.

Electric-car advocates have argued that massive fleets and infrastructure investments are the key to driving down the costs of items that make the technology work. Currently, electric vehicles cost substantially more than gas- and diesel-powered vehicles, mostly because of the expensive batteries.

If the number of cars is scaled up, backers say, the cost of batteries will come down, and EVs will become more competitive. Last month, a group calling itself the Electrification Coalition, made up of electric carmakers and some energy interests, said the country could roll out 12 million cars by 2020 and 123 million by 2030.

The Electric Power Research Institute, a utility-backed think tank, projected that it's possible to have 100 million cars on roads by 2030.

In each case, the government and utilities would need to make large investments in infrastructure, as well as cars. Electric cars can cut the most greenhouse-gas emissions, it's argued, with widely accessible charging stations, a grid that can be a two-way street for power, and with more renewable energy generators.

Genevieve Cullen, a lobbyist for the Electric Drive Transportation Association, the main trade group representing the industry, said Obama's goal is "absolutely in the realm of the possible."

But she said the government needs to take an "up and downstream approach," from assisting battery-makers and automakers all the way to tax incentives for buyers. Otherwise, the cars might be consigned to the fate of hybrid cars, which she said took nearly a decade to reach 3 percent of the national fleet.

"Scale is key to making this make a difference," she said.

James Woolsey, a former CIA director who now hunts green investment opportunities for venture capitalists, said the electric-car technology is improving fast enough to put Obama's goal within reach.

"Batteries are undergoing a very rapid revolution," he said. "Materials science is in the process of producing fundamental changes in batteries that will come within the next few years."

If these advances halve the price of batteries, he said, the economic appeal of electric cars - costing a few cents per mile - will propel the market.

As for the materials issue, Woolsey said, importing isn't the problem - what matters is the trade partner.

"Reliance for production on fellow democracies is not a fundamental problem," he said. If the United States aims to keep some production of the technology, he said, "I think at least these problems are manageable."

Scott Doggett:  is an AutoObserver.com Associate Editor.