Toyota Fuel-Cell Vehicle Costs to Fall 95% Between 2005 and 2015, Executive Says
By Scott Doggett May 6, 2010
By Danny King, Contributor
Toyota Motor Co. said Wednesday that it expects its per-vehicle cost of a hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicle has dropped about 90 percent in the past five years and will fall another 50 percent or so when the world's largest automaker plans to make its first FCEVs available to the public in 2015.
The company, which in 2002 was the first automaker to lease out a fuel-cell vehicle, has Highlander SUV fuel-cell vehicles in development that can travel as many as 500 miles on a full tank of hydrogen, Toyota Managing Officer Yoshihiko Masuda said at the National Hydrogen Association Conference and Expo in Long Beach, Calif.
While Masuda didn't say how much the cars will cost when they start sales in 2015, early fuel-cell vehicles were estimated to have cost about $1 million each, indicating that Toyota's 2015 FCEVs may cost in the $50,000 range.
Toyota is one of at least eight automakers that have signed a "letter of understanding" to develop and introduce to the market (but not necessarily sell) fuel-cell cars within the next five years. The company is devoting more than 100 of Highlander FCEVs to a U.S. demonstration program between 2010 and 2013.
Due to a lack of hydrogen infrastructure investment, some automakers have either halted or slowed hydrogen-related fuel programs. For instance, BMW said late last year that it would stop its on-road testing of 100 hydrogen-burning 7-series sedans after more than 2 million miles of real-world driving because of the lack of infrastructure.
Additionally, Honda, whose FCX Clarity is the only ready-for-production hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicle, said in mid-2008 that it planned to lease about 200 of the vehicles over the ensuing three years, but has leased out less than two dozen since then because of a combination of a slowing economy and a lack of fueling stations.
Still, Masuda, whose fellow speakers at the event included California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, said the Japanese automaker planned to be a leader in FCEV development, adding that FCEVs already have better and smoother acceleration than a 2.4-liter engine Camry and that fuel-stack durability and power density within FCEVs will be double what they are now.
Additionally, Masuda said the refueling cost of hydrogen, excluding station costs, is now about 10 percent less than that of gasoline, and may drop to about half the cost of gasoline by the end of the decade.
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$50,000 is just about OK for a top of the range vehicle, so Daimler and the Lexus brands are interested, but with the limited pool of people who can afford that money getting the infrastructure built will not be easily financed.
That is why Mercedes is trying to get the German Government to fork out for it.
France with it's greater production of cheaper cars and plentiful nuclear electricity is much more interested in pushing batteries.
Is this Toyota's answer to not having competitive Li-ion battery technology in their pipeline?
Nissan expect to double energy density of their Leaf battery within 5 years.
The reason BMW killed their Hydrogen test program was because it was a stupid idea in the first place and could only be seen as a 'greenwash' program.
Hydrogen is such a low energy density fuel that BMW had to fit a tank that filled the entire boot space yet still had significantly less range than the same car with petrol.
Masuda talks about refueling costs 10% less than petrol, how is that going to compete with EVs that are 90% less than petrol???
About the only type of FC worth looking at are Solid Oxide Fuel Cells that run on high energy density fuels like Diesel! Hydrogen is just a none-starter.
@tsport:
Running an ICE using hydrogen is a very different matter to using a fuel cell which are much more efficient.
The latest Toyota models have acceptable range and certainly do not fill up the boot with their fuel tanks.
Using early BMW's to dismiss the technology is about as sensible as judging battery cars by lead-acid NEVs.
There are two real issues with fuel cell cars: The cost and the infrastructure.
The cost at least is addressed in this article, and if that is addressed successfully the infrastructure becomes more attractive to build out.
The higher costs of the hydrogen itself will in any case be mitigated as battery cars can greatly reduce the times that it has to be used, keeping it for when it really is handy.
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