Mega-Supercities in Developing Economies Will Drive EV Demand - Frost & Sullivan
By Scott Doggett August 12, 2010
By 2020, "the emergence of mega-supercities in developing economies will affect personal mobility, driving the demand for electric vehicles," according to a statement issued by Frost & Sullivan that's based on a report available from the global consulting firm.
Right, click graphic to enlarge.
"Most offices that are expected to move to the first-belt suburbs and city centers will encompass the shopping areas (small-scale deliveries) and living areas for double/single income, no kids households" Frost & Sullivan's Automotive & Transportation Group Team Leader Anjan Hemanth Kumar said in a statement.
"In mega cities, offices and homes are likely to be adjacent to each other, creating a favorable environment for EV deployment," she said.
Sounds interesting, and we hoped to get a copy of the report for further details, but Frost & Sullivan denied our request for a copy.
The firm did provide us with a summary of the report, which wasn't particularly helpful. For example, the graphic pictured above and appearing in the summary makes little sense. First, San Francisco's economy is hardly a "developing economy," and second, the "living areas expanding well outside of the peninsular loop in San Francisco" already exist; one needn't look 10 years into the future to see them.
Beyond that, lots of people already live in San Francisco, living the scenario Kumar described of "offices and homes being adjacent to each other." The problem is that there is only one garage for every six cars in San Francisco, which means that unless lots of chargers are installed throughout the city, relatively few San Francisconites will be able to charge their cars at home overnight, which is where and when many experts say the vast majority of EV charging will take place.
Moreover, as someone who lived in Los Angeles for more than 20 years and the San Francisco Bay Area for more than 12 years, the truth is that people really don't want long commutes. Most people who live many miles from their jobs don't do it by choice.
But what happens is that the homes closest to jobs tend to be pricier and smaller than homes farther out, pressuring those who need larger homes (mostly families) to look for affordable housing where it exists - and that's generally a good distance from the jobs. Hence the hundred-mile commutes many people "enjoy."
Los Angeles is a perfect example of the mega-supercity, with more than 10 million people living in an area so congested you cannot tell where that city ends and another begins. The jobs within the sprawl are spread out, but again, those looking for larger homes who don't have hefty incomes have to live away from their workplaces and commute.
The Frost & Sullivan statement goes on to say that rising concerns over greenhouse gases and depleting fossil fuel sources are further solidifying the case for EVs. Well, duh.
"Associations and close participation among OEMs, battery manufacturers and energy utilities will accelerate the introduction of EVs. Market participants could also collaborate with environmental advocates and lobby for benefits," the statement said. Ditto the well, duh.
We wouldn't have mentioned the Frost & Sullivan report at all except may blogs are writing it - actually, they are writing about the brief statement issued by the firm because, as previously mentioned, it is not releasing the report to the media.
As to the cost of the report, the person who handles media requests for Frost & Sullivan said she didn't know it but did promise to have an account executive contact me.
Scott Doggett, Contributing Editor
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