Automakers Will Have Sold 3.2 Million EVs, PHEVs by 2015 Says Pike Research
By John O'Dell September 1, 2010
By John O'Dell, Senior Editor
It sounds like a lot of cars, until you stop and compute.
Pike Research is predicting that global sales of battery-electric and plug-in electric vehicles will grow substantially over the next five years with a total of 3.2 million BEVs and PHEVs sold by 2015 - a compound annual growth rate of 106%.
But annual sales by 2015 will be only a bit above 1 million electric-drive cars and trucks, said Pike Senior analyst Dave Hurst. That's only about 1.5 percent of the anticipated 70 million light vehicles that will be sold around the world that year.
Pike's EV sales forecast comes in a week when EV supporters have been hit by reports that high depreciation will make electric vehicles less economical to own than regular internal combustion vehicles in the first three years and that the impact of the batteries and electricity for EVs will make them less environmentally friendly than some diesels.
The report also comes in the midst of an ongoing global economic slump, something that could have profound impact on consumers' willingness to pay the technology premium that makes most electric-drive vehicles cost more than their conventional counterparts.
Hurst, however, tells us he considered those issue and decided that in the first few years of ECV and PHEV sales they simply won't matter much.
"Environmental and economic concerns will play a role, but in the first few years we don't see them having a big impact because the newness factor will still be strong enough" to created demand, Hurst said in an interview with Green Car Advisor.
"Besides, we're not really forecasting that many in the 2011-2014 period," he said.
And after that, the economy should be improving and battery technology may have moved far enough along to reduce the need for minerals that can only be extracted through mining and other environmentally invasive processes.
Hurst also said he expected companies such as General Motors, Nissan and Toyota to launch heavy marketing campaigns as their BEVs and PHEVs begin hitting dealerships starting late this year. "There will be such an effort by the manufacturers to emphasize these vehicles' environmental benefits that, we suspect, it will drown out most of the mixed messages we're seeing lately."
Because initial sales will be low, Hurst said that if economic and environmental issues do dampen sales of electric-drive vehicles "we probably won't see that impact until after 2013."
In his forecast, Hurst says - as we have in the past - that electric-drive vehicles likely will follow the same growth pattern (slowly at first) as hybrids, will compliment rather than displace conventional hybrids and initially we be concentrated in the small car and crossover vehicle segments.
"Because of their low weight and good aerodynamics, smaller vehicles are far more efficient to better extend the electrically powered driving range, and the smaller vehicle segments also allow the use of a smaller, less expensive battery," he wrote.
Pike expects China (which has said it is national policy to do so) will take the global lead in EV and PHEV adoption, with sales there accounting for 27 percent of the forecast volume by 2015, with the U.S. close behind at 26 percent.
And if you're worried about where all those EV drives will find chargers, relax Pike earlier this year forecast that there will be about 4.7 million EV charging stations installed worldwide by 2015 - a combination of home- and business-based, and public and commercial chargers.
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