Report Will Cast Doubt Upon Likelihood of Rapid Deployment of Plug-in Vehicles

Report Will Cast Doubt Upon Likelihood of Rapid Deployment of Plug-in Vehicles

IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates is preparing a report that casts doubt on the rapid deployment of the plug-in vehicles, contending they will be hampered by shortages of recharging stations for urban motorists, the subscription news service ClimateWire reported today.

CERA Vice President Larry Makovich said the report, which is scheduled to  be released in November, also takes issue with a scenario that foresees millions of plug-in electric vehicles being recharged at night by wind power.

The study will assert that in a number of urban areas where wind or hydro power is not readily available, electric vehicles are likely to be recharged by coal-fired generating plants, whose carbon emissions will substantially undercut the vehicles' climate benefits.

CERA's study will also contend that in the absence of federal policy to tax carbon emissions, wind power will lose ground to natural gas-fired power generation, which should remain relatively cheap because of the huge increase in U.S. natural gas reserves stemming from shale gas development, he told ClimateWire.

Plug-in hybrids and battery-electric vehicles are a crucial part of the Obama administration's long-range scenario for reducing greenhouse gases.

President Obama has set a goal of having 1 million all-electric or hybrid electric-gasoline vehicles on the road by 2015, and the administration has channeled Smart Grid grants to support advanced battery development, charging stations deployment and production facilities for electric cars.

CERA's research indicates that there will be serious economic and logistical obstacles to widespread development of public recharging stations in urban areas - the logical target for electric vehicle deployment because of the shorter distances urban commuters and residents drive each day, Makovich said.

"There are tremendous challenges to implementing electric vehicles in urban settings, particularly in older cities," Makovich said. Cities such as San Francisco have many neighborhoods where a majority of car owners park their cars at the curb, not in garages where plug-in recharging would be convenient and secure.

The most likely customers for all-electric cars are motorists in cities' close-in suburbs, where round-trip daily commuting distances are 35 miles or less, CERA's report will conclude.

In cities such as Detroit, where renewable resources are currently meager, a large-scale increase in electricity use to recharge vehicles is likely to be met by coal power in the foreseeable future, he said. "We're talking about multiple decades before you have a meaningful change to what's on the margin off-peak" for power generation.

Scott Doggett:  is an AutoObserver.com Associate Editor.