CAR Study Forecasts 469,000 EVs on U.S. Roads in 2015
By Scott Doggett February 14, 2011
In a new study, the respected Center for Automotive Research has estimated the national distribution patterns of electric-drive vehicles across the U.S. over the next four years and concluded that 469,000 EVs should be on American roads in 2015.
That figure does not include the number of electric-drive vehicles sold before 2012. Rather, the study, which was funded through a research grant from General Motors, forecasts the number of EVs sold by state for 2012-2015.
The Ann Arbor, Michigan, nonprofit research organization emphasized that deployment of electric vehicles across all 50 states "at this point in time is extremely difficult given that the vehicles are just now reaching the market."
That said, it based its conclusions on the best-available information to date, which included manufacturers' EV rollout announcements, incentives offered by states (interestingly, only Alaska and Hawaii offered none), purchasing plans by big fleet operators, and a host of other factors.
Key among the states' incentives were rebates, tax exemptions and parking incentives, the study said. Strangely, there was no mention of carpool-lane stickers for drivers of battery-electric vehicles, which is a major motivator for some buyers (at least in California) for purchasing a BEV.
"The study finds that many factors could affect deployment and annual market share," said Kim Hill, lead researcher on the study. "The estimated number of vehicles on the road in this time period could be pushed higher through an increased level of consumer acceptance, fleet purchases, new entrants into the market, and most importantly, through incentive programs at the federal, state and local levels, such as an expansion of EV-ready cities and regions, and consumer incentives."
The study comes at a time when the Obama administration has made putting 1 million electric-drive vehicles on U.S. roads by 2015 a priority and Republican members of Congress have begun questioning the wisdom of providing federal financial incentives to encourage EV adoption.
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Seriously ENOUGH with all the negative EV surveys already. What sort of arsehole publicly states he thinks he can 'predict' the sales volume of a totally new product category down to state level? These people need to get a REAL job! You think the "Center for Automotive Research" might be on the oil payroll?? LOL
So a study funded by GM has come out with figures that GM would be really comfortable with, and which would be very bad news for Nissan.
As for the distribution, presumably that is based on petrol prices being pretty stable, as are the sales projections.
Most oil analysts see markedly higher prices, perhaps by 2012, which would obviously lift total sales but also lead to other populous, relatively high population density states like New York adopting measures much more like those of California and greatly narrow the gap in sales.
Marketing powerhouse J.D. Power and Associates recently released its forecast concerning hybrid and green automobiles. The marketing firm doesn't have great faith in them. Power's recent assessment of the eco-friendly automobile industry forecasts that green automobiles cost too much in bad conditions to take off for a very long time. The environmentally conscious are running up against a brick wall that is just inescapable. Basic economics trumps idealism every time. I found this here: J.D. Power doubts hybrid and green car sales will pick up
Marketing powerhouse J.D. Power and Associates recently released its forecast concerning hybrid and green automobiles. The marketing firm doesn't have great faith in them. Power's recent assessment of the eco-friendly automobile industry forecasts that green automobiles cost too much in bad conditions to take off for a very long time. The environmentally conscious are running up against a brick wall that is just inescapable. Basic economics trumps idealism every time. I found this here: J.D. Power doubts hybrid and green car sales will pick up
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