Edmunds.com: March Sales, Though Down, May Be Best of the Year
March 26, 2007

The good news is: March may be one of the best months of 2007.

The bad news: March sales will be lower than last year and still be one of the best months this year, suggesting little for the industry to look forward to for the rest of the year.

This month's new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 1.48 million units, a 3.0-percent decrease from March 2006, according to Edmunds.com. Though sales are lower this March than last, Jesse Toprak, executive director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com, notes more cars were sold in March last year than any other month of last year. He predicts that this March may be one of the best months of 2007.

"This month, the industry faced debilitating winter storms, less compelling marketing messages and reduced fleet sales, so it is no surprise that year-over-year comparisons reflect a relative downturn," said Toprak. “Nevertheless, I believe we are still on track for annual sales volumes of approximately 16.5 million vehicles, along the lines of what we saw in 2006."

Typically, the summer has been the strongest period for new-car sales. This may be shifting because new-model introductions come earlier in the year than they used to, possibly sparking traffic to showrooms during historically quieter months.

Toprak noted that the compact-car segment -- the industry's hottest –- is expected to be up 10 percent (unadjusted for selling days; up 6 percent adjusted) compared to March 2006. This March had 28 selling days, one more than March 2006. When adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 6.5 percent from March 2006. (The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.)

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 53.7 percent in March 2007, down from 56.5 percent in March 2006 and down from 55.1 percent from February 2007.

Edmunds.com predicts the following:

* Chrysler will sell 203,000 units in March 2007, down 6.2 percent compared to March 2006. This would result in a new-car market share of 13.7 percent for Chrysler in March 2007, down from 14.2 percent in March 2006 and down from 14.0 percent in February 2007.

* Ford will sell 236,000 units in March 2007, down 17.2 percent compared to March 2006. This would result in a market share of 16.0 percent of new car sales in March 2007 for Ford, down from 18.7 percent in March 2006 and down from 16.4 percent in February 2007.

* GM will sell 356,000 units in March 2007, down 1.3 percent compared to March 2006. GM's market share is expected to be 24.0 percent of new vehicle sales in March 2007, up from 23.6 percent in March 2006 and down from 24.7 percent in February 2007.

* Toyota will sell 236,000 units in March 2007, up about 8.8 percent from March 2006. Toyota's market share is expected to be 16.0 percent in March 2007, up from 14.2 percent in March 2006 and up from 15.0 percent from February 2007.

*Honda will sell 133,000 units in March 2007, up 3.0 percent from March 2006. Its market share is expected to be 9.0 percent in March 2007, up from 8.4 percent in March 2006 and up from 8.8 percent in February 2007.

*Nissan will sell 104,000 units in March 2007, up about 1.1 percent from March 2006. Nissan's market share is expected to be 7.0 percent in March 2007, up slightly from 6.8 percent in March 2006 and February 2007.

	Change from March 2006 (Adjusted for more selling days)	Change from March 2006 (Unadjusted for more selling days)
Chrysler	-9.6%	-6.2%
Ford	-20.2%	-17.2%
GM	-4.8%	-1.3%
Honda	-0.6%	3.0%
Nissan	-2.5%	1.1%
Toyota	4.9%	8.8%
Industry Total	-6.5%	-3.0%

Posted by Michelle Krebs at 6:52 AM under Analysis , Business , Chrysler , Ford , GM , News , Toyota | Comments (0) | digg this | Seed Newsvine