Big Three to Lose More Ground, Global Insight
May 23, 2007

The U.S. auto market will pick up in 2008, but Detroit’s three automakers won’t be beneficiaries, according to a new forecast from the London-based market research firm Global Insight.

Light-vehicle sales will rebound next year after dipping to 16.2 million in 2007, said George Magliano, Global Insight’s director of North America, at a conference in Tokyo and reported by Automotive News. Magliano said sales would rise gradually, but they won't regain the 17 million level -- last seen in 2001-- until 2010. By 2012, sales will climb to 17.7 million. Between now and then, General Motors, Ford and Chrysler combined will lose seven points of market share.

Detroit's share of North American light-vehicle production, including Mexico, Canada and the U.S., will also drop -- to 60 percent by 2012 from just under 80 percent as recently as 1999, and could fall further.

Imports will rise from 3.7 million this year to 4.4 million vehicles in 2012, and North American transplant operations will be at full capacity by 2011 or 2012, according to Magliano.

Beyond 2012, the threat of car imports from China looms, Global Insight predicts.

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