What's Hot, What's Not This Summer
June 08, 2007

Small cars are hot and getting hotter this summer. Big trucks as well as large, midsize and luxury SUVs are not. And the Buick Enclave looks like another winner for General Motors, according to Edmunds.com's analysis of consumer intent.

Consumer intent is determined by what vehicles consumers are shopping for right now on Edmunds.com and what they likely will buy in the next 30 to 90 days. That demand -– or lack thereof -– has a direct correlation to prices and incentives.

For consumers in the market for small cars, buy now because the prices won’t be better and might even go higher. For large truck and SUV shoppers, hold off; bigger incentives are on the way, says Edmunds.com CEO Jeremy Anwyl yesterday in a presentation to the Society of Automotive Analysts.

Here’s a rundown by category and individual models of what’s hot and unlikely to see higher incentives or increased discounting so now is as good time to buy as any. Also following is a listing of what categories and individuals aren't so hot, indicating buyers should hold off their purchases for richer incentives and deeper discounting:

Small Cars, Small SUVs Sizzle

Small car sales have been hot, hot, hot in recent months, and they are expected to get even hotter throughout the summer.

Based on Edmunds.com’s analysis of consumer intent, small cars are showing the largest increase in interest by car shoppers of any vehicle segment. That rising consumer intent and demand suggest few incentives and little discounting.

Indeed, Edmunds.com’s analysis shows already in recent months incentives on small cars are declining and transaction prices are increasing.

In March, the Total Cost of Incentives calculated by Edmunds.com was $1,165 per car industry wide. That figure dropped to $1,136 in April and $1,114 in May. As a result, the True Market Value, Edmunds.com’s calculation of what consumers are really paying for a vehicle, climbed from $17,448 in March, to $17,466 in April and $17,565 in May.

Based on current consumer intent, those trends are likely to continue through the summer.

What’s hot: Toyota Prius, Kia Rio, Nissan Sentra, Nissan Versa, Toyota Yaris
What’s not: Kia Rondo, Subaru Impreza

The hot vehicles listed show a 25 percent or more increase in consumer intent, indicating the likelihood of lower incentives, if any, and little discounting. In fact, higher prices are possible. The Rondo and Impreza may offer the best deals with consumer intent decreasing the most -- 10 percent or more -- on those models.

Vehicle TCI
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
Toyota	Prius	$2,181	$1,004	$669
Kia	Rio	473	600	438
Kia	Rondo	1,545	1,263	1,283
Nissan	Sentra	459	758	1,362
Nissan	Versa	273	262	432
Subaru	Impreza	1,054	1,050	1,099
Toyota	Yaris	49	55	93

Source: Edmunds.com

Typically Equipped TMV
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
Toyota	Prius	$22,295	$22,276	$22,537
Kia	Rio	14,102	14,156	14,181
Kia	Rondo	19,573	18,766	19,586
Nissan	Sentra	17,297	17,353	17,399
Nissan	Versa	15,369	15,378	15,432
Subaru	Impreza	25,316	25,319	25,252
Toyota	Yaris	14,821	14,821	14,653

Source: Edmunds.com

Consumers also are heavily shopping small SUVs. Coming off a strong May, the Ford Escape Hybrid and Mercury Mariner Hybrid should see rising sales and less discounting, according to Edmunds.com's analysis. The models were revamped and recently introduced as 2008 models. Also looking to be a winner is the completely redesigned Saturn Vue, just going on sale and to be available with a hybrid.

What’s hot: Ford Escape Hybrid, Mercury Mariner Hybrid, Saturn Vue

Midsize cars: Hybrids lead

Among midsize cars, the newest models and ones with hybrid availability have the highest increases in consumer intent, indicating higher sales and less price discounting this summer.

What's hot: Toyota Camry Hybrid, Nissan Altima Hybrid, Nissan Altima, Chrysler Sebring

What's not: Chevrolet Monte Carlo

Vehicle TCI
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
Ford	Escape Hybrid	$1,738	$1,145	$650
Mercury	Mariner Hybrid	3,285	1,744	951
Saturn	Vue	1,964	2,230	2,163

Source: Edmunds.com

Typically Equipped TMV
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
Ford	Escape Hybrid	$29,282	$26,668	$30,105
Mercury	Mariner Hybrid	31,288	30,897	30,691
Saturn	Vue	24,329	24,356	24,442

Source: Edmunds.com

Big Is Passé

Largely due to the same reason small cars are hot -- high gas prices -- big vehicles are cold. Vehicle categories showing the largest declines in consumer interest based on Edmunds.com’s study of consumer intent are: large SUVs, down 10 percent in consumer interest; midsize truck-based SUVs, down 10 percent; and large trucks and luxury SUVs, down 9 percent.

These models showed the largest decrease in consumer interest, which makes them the most likely candidates for incentives and discounting.

What's cold (luxury SUVs): BMW X5, Land Rover LR3, Porsche Cayenne 

What's cold (large SUVs): Toyota Land Cruiser, Ford Expedition EL, Toyota Sequoia, Ford Expedition

What’s cold (midsize SUVs): Buick Rainier, Jeep Commander, Chrysler Aspen

What’s cold (smaller SUVs): Mitsubishi Endeavor, Dodge Nitro, Mitsubishi Outlander

What’s cold (trucks): Ford F-150, Dodge Ram 1500

Vehicle TCI
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
BMW	X5	$3,106	$5,051	$5,190
Buick	Rainier	5,352	4,497	5,850
Chrysler	Aspen	2,727	3,471	3,517
Dodge	Nitro	747	1,607	1,320
Dodge	Ram Pickup 1500	6,036	6,400	6,755
Ford	Expedition	2,937	2,747	3,198
Ford	F-150	3,932	4,036	4,125
Ford	Expedition EL	2,635	2,548	2,718
Jeep	Commander	6,828	6,983	7,348
Land Rover	LR3	2,925	2,150	2,828
Mitsubishi	Endeavor	4,047	3,934	3,949
Mitsubishi	Outlander	1,794	1,726	1,429
Porsche	Cayenne	319	324	131
Toyota	Land Cruiser	269	559	689
Toyota	Sequoia	3,543	3,404	3,536

Source: Edmunds.com

Typically Equipped TMV
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
BMW	X5	$53,401	$53,256	$53,632
Buick	Rainier	32,857	32,752	33,529
Chrysler	Aspen	33,328	33,150	33,104
Dodge	Nitro	23,353	23,151	23,129
Dodge	Ram Pickup 1500	29,591	29,801	30,047
Ford	Expedition	35,104	34,971	34,668
Ford	F-150	29,757	29,750	29,831
Ford	Expedition EL	38,424	38,272	38,335
Jeep	Commander	31,775	33,769	34,478
Land Rover	LR3	46,609	46,711	49,307
Mitsubishi	Endeavor	27,945	27,862	28,014
Mitsubishi	Outlander	23,476	23,383	23,379
Porsche	Cayenne	61,407	58,305	60,784
Toyota	Land Cruiser	53,360	54,486	54,921
Toyota	Sequoia	40,144	40,076	39,990

Source: Edmunds.com

“The F-Series is going to need quite a bit of incentives throughout the year,” says Anwyl.

The F-Series faces an uphill battle since it is older than most of the pickups on the market, and its No. 1 sales spot is being challenged by the redesigned Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra as well as upstart Toyota Tundra.

However, Anwyl notes, consumer interest in the Tundra is also decreasing, indicating even heftier discounting and incentives on Toyota’s new truck are also likely.

Hybrids of All Varieties Are Hot

In the various categories of vehicles, hybrids stand out as generating tremendous interest among shoppers. Ironically, Honda just announced it was eliminating its Accord Hybrid with the next-generation Accord out this fall.

One interesting effort to note is that hybrid technology is moving into truck and larger SUV segments, notes Anwyl. Those models could get a sales boost. The Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid and GMC Yukon Hybrid become available this fall with the industry's first two-mode hybrid system, developed by GM with DaimlerChrysler and BMW. Chrysler follows with its two-model hybrid versions of the Dodge Durango and Chrysler Aspen early next year. BMW is next but hasn't said what model the new technology will go on.

Anwyl said he was surprised Toyota didn't immediately come out with a hybrid version of its Tundra pickup. Instead, Toyota is promoting the vehicle's horsepower and capabilities, whereas it could have boasted about class-leading fuel economy as well if it had a hybrid. The Tundra then would have better fit Toyota's brand image, he notes.

Crossovers Are Hot

Consumers are extremely interested in crossovers, but some more than others.

The Buick Enclave, like its cousins the Saturn Outlook and GMC Acadia before it, is hot in terms of consumer interest. It not only ranked tops among crossovers in increased consumer intent but also ranked as having the highest increase in consumer purchase intent across the board.

What’s curious is the dramatic decline in consumer interest in the brand-new Mazda CX-9 and CX-7, notes Anwyl. Less surprising is the lack of interest in the rather odd Subaru B9 Tribeca and the aging Honda Pilot, which is replaced later this year. In fact, Edmunds.com data shows the Honda Pilot has been losing out largely to General Motors’ new crossovers –- the Saturn Outlook and GMC Acadia.

What’s hot: Buick Enclave, Toyota Highlander Hybrid
What’s not: Subaru B9 Tribeca, Mazda CX-9, Mazda CX-7, Honda Pilot

Vehicle TCI
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
Buick	Enclave			$747
Honda	Pilot	$1,803	$1,633	2,645
Mazda	CX-7	2,198	1,667	1,934
Mazda	CX-9	1,728	1,060	1,409
Subaru	B9 Tribeca	2,154	1,891	3,038
Toyota	Highlander Hybrid	1,324	3,084	3,161

Source: Edmunds.com

Typically Equipped TMV
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
Buick	Enclave			$34,800
Honda	Pilot	$30,119	$30,287	28,492
Mazda	CX-7	26,437	26,337	26,224
Mazda	CX-9	32,609	32,510	32,128
Subaru	B9 Tribeca	33,384	33,177	33,320
Toyota	Highlander Hybrid	35,226	34,167	34,577

Source: Edmunds.com

Sports Car Performance

Consumer interest in the sports car category is a mixed bag.

For some unexplainable reason, the Mitsubishi Eclipse is generating the most interest by consumers, suggesting summer sales will be strong and discounting low. Not so surprisingly, interest in the newly redesigned Audi TT is up so forget about a bargain.

In contrast, interest in the Hyundai Tiburon, Mazda RX-8 and Mazda MX-5 Miata is decreasing, indicating summer price softening. Anwyl surmises the decrease in interest in these models is due to the fact that they are older.

What’s hot: Mitsubishi Eclipse, Audi TT
What’s not: Hyundai Tiburon, Mazda RX-8, Mazda MX-5 Miata

Vehicle TCI
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
Audi	TT			$265
Hyundai	Tiburon	$327	$524	527
Mazda	RX-8	2,714	2,377	2,211
Mazda	MX-5 Miata	1,095	727	613
Mitsubishi	Eclipse	1,732	1,731	1,983

Source: Edmunds.com

Typically Equipped TMV
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
Audi	TT		$41,787	$43,086
Hyundai	Tiburon	$19,329	19,416	19,527
Mazda	RX-8	27,124	26,921	26,900
Mazda	MX-5 Miata	23,416	23,895	24,372
Mitsubishi	Eclipse	23,061	22,918	23,019

Source: Edmunds.com

Luxury Cars: BMW 5 Series Is Hot

The BMW 5 Series is generating the most consumer interest in the luxury car category, while the

Infiniti M45 and M35 are seeing the least amount of activity.

Anwyl says Edmunds.com has no good explanation for the increased interest in the BMW 5 Series, which has seen an increase in consumer intent of more than 25 percent.

The decreased consumer interest in Infiniti’s M models -– a drop of more than 15 percent -- is likely due to the age of the models. Further, Anwyl says, the brand-new Infiniti G models, which are hot, likely are stealing some of the M’s thunder. Nissan may have to boost incentives and/or discounting on the M this summer to move it.

What’s hot: BMW 5 Series
What’s not: Infiniti M45, Infiniti M35

Vehicle TCI
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
BMW	5 Series	$8,317	$7,857	$7,828
Infiniti	M45	2,313	584	8,231
Infiniti	M35	4,245	3,121	4,115

Source: Edmunds.com

Typically Equipped TMV
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
BMW	5 Series	$53,182	$52,502	$52,439
Infiniti	M45	52,844	52,394	52,060
Infiniti	M35	46,509	45,997	45,996

Source: Edmunds.com

Minivans, Compact Trucks Cold

The minivan category is showing little vitality, says Anwyl. Chrysler will introduce this summer its all-new Chrysler Town & Country and Dodge Grand Caravan. Meantime, Ford and General Motors have announced plans to get out of the segment and focus on crossovers instead.

Similarly, the compact truck category is also of little interest to consumers, says Anwyl.

What’s cold (minivans): Nissan Quest, Ford Freestar, Buick Terraza
What’s cold (compact trucks): Mitsubishi Raider, Nissan Frontier

Vehicle TCI
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
Buick	Terraza	$1,352	$1,474	$940
Ford	Freestar	5,038	5,011	5,010
Mitsubishi	Raider	4,149	4,050	3,130
Nissan	Quest	3,064	3,046	3,214
Nissan	Frontier	1,938	1,949	1,973

Source: Edmunds.com

Typically Equipped TMV
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
Buick	Terraza	$29,439	$29,035	$29,469
Ford	Freestar	24,345	24,295	24,493
Mitsubishi	Raider	24,778	24,747	24,608
Nissan	Quest	27,975	28,062	28,006
Nissan	Frontier	22,961	23,040	23,257

Source: Edmunds.com

Individual Winners and Losers

It looks like Buick may have a winner on its hands with the Buick Enclave, its new crossover with three rows of seats. The Enclave is seeing the biggest increase in consumer purchase intent of any model on Edmunds.com at the moment, indicating strong sales and little discounting.

The Enclave is based on the same architecture as the Saturn Outlook and GMC Acadia, which have received tremendous consumer interest on Edmunds.com and enjoyed strong sales. In fact, the Acadia was named Edmunds.com’s Most Wanted by Consumers –- by a wide margin.

Interest in hybrids continues to increase with the Ford Escape Hybrid, Toyota Prius and Mercury Mariner following the Enclave in interest, respectively.

Like Buick with its Enclave, Saturn looks like it, too, has a winner with the completely redesigned Vue small SUV, which will come with a low-cost hybrid later in the year.

Individual vehicles generating the least amount of consumer interest, respectively, are the Buick Rainier, Mitsubishi Endeavor, Infiniti M45, Kia Rondo and Infiniti M35. “Expect deals on those this summer,” says Anwyl.

Hot individuals: Buick Enclave, Ford Escape Hybrid, Toyota Prius, Mercury Mariner
Ice-cold individuals: Buick Rainier, Mitsubishi Endeavor, Infiniti M45, Kia Rondo, Infiniti M35

Vehicle TCI
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
Buick	Enclave			$747
Buick	Rainier	$5,352	$4,497	5,850
Ford	Escape Hybrid	1,738	1,145	650
Infiniti	M45	2,313	584	8,231
Infiniti	M35	4,245	3,121	4,115
Kia	Rondo	1,545	1,263	1,283
Mercury	Mariner Hybrid	3,285	1,744	951
Mitsubishi	Endeavor	4,047	3,934	3,949
Toyota	Prius	2,181	1,004	669

Source: Edmunds.com

Typically Equipped TMV
Make	Model	2007
		March	April	May
Buick	Enclave			$34,800
Buick	Rainier	$32,857	$32,752	33,529
Ford	Escape Hybrid	29,282	26,668	30,105
Infiniti	M45	52,844	52,394	52,060
Infiniti	M35	46,509	45,997	45,996
Kia	Rondo	19,573	18,766	19,586
Mercury	Mariner Hybrid	31,288	30,897	30,691
Mitsubishi	Endeavor	27,945	27,862	28,014
Toyota	Prius	22,295	22,276	22,537

Source: Edmunds.com

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