Edmunds.com Forecast: July Sales Down
July 27, 2007

Summer 2007 is turning out to be rather unusual compared to summers of the recent past, and it is showing up in sales.

This summer, no big blowout, model-year-end incentives are being offered -- yet -- to consumers to clean up leftover inventories. In recent years, General Motors has led the parade with big campaigns that have forced others to follow, But throughout this year, GM has tempered its incentives.

As a result, in part, July new vehicle sales, to be announced next week, are expected to be down for the industry, according to Edmunds.com's forecast.

This month's new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 1.37 million units, a 7.9 percent decrease from July 2006, according to Edmunds.com.

This July had 24 selling days, one less than July 2006. When adjusted for this difference, sales are expected to decrease 4.1 percent from July 2006. (The chart below sets forth other adjusted and unadjusted projections.)

"Manufacturer incentives on year-end model vehicles have not been as effective as in previous years getting consumers into dealerships to purchase vehicles," observed Jesse Toprak, executive director of industry analysis for Edmunds.com. "In addition, some of the slowdown we’re seeing is because of a weakness in consumer demand due to gas prices and housing market woes."

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 51.5 percent in July 2007, down from 53.3 percent in July 2006 and up slightly from 51.4 percent in June 2007.

Edmunds.com predicts:

Chrysler will sell 161,000 units in July 2007, up 7.3 percent compared to July 2006. This would result in a new car market share of 11.8 percent for Chrysler in July 2007, up from 10.1 percent in July 2006 and down from 12.6 percent in June 2007.

Ford will sell 211,000 units in July 2007, down 10.5 percent compared to July 2006. This would result in a market share of 15.4 percent of new car sales in July 2007 for Ford, down from 15.9 percent in July 2006 and down from 16.6 percent in June 2007.

GM will sell 333,000 units in July 2007, down 18.1 percent compared to July 2006. GM's market share is expected to be 24.3 percent of new vehicle sales in July 2007, down from 27.3 percent in July 2006 and up from 22.2 percent in June 2007.

Honda will sell 139,000 units in July 2007, down 8.4 percent from July 2006. Its market share is expected to be 10.1 percent in July 2007, down slightly from 10.2 percent in July 2006 and up from 9.7 percent in June 2007.

Nissan will sell 87,000 units in July 2007, up 1.0 percent from July 2006. Nissan's market share is expected to be 6.4 percent in July 2007, up from 5.8 percent in July 2006 and unchanged at 6.4 percent in June 2007.

Toyota will sell 233,000 units in July 2007, down 3.7 percent from July 2006. Toyota's market share is expected to be 17.0 percent in July 2007, up from 16.2 percent in July 2006 and unchanged at 17.0 percent from June 2007.

	Change from July 2006 (Adjusted for more selling days)	Change from July 2006 (Unadjusted for more selling days)
Chrysler	11.7%	7.3%
Ford	-6.8%	-10.5%
GM	-14.7%	-18.1%
Honda	-4.6%	-8.4%
Nissan	5.2%	1.0%
Toyota	0.3%	-3.7%
Industry Total	-4.1%	-7.9%

Posted by Michelle Krebs at 8:04 AM under Analysis , Chrysler , Commentary , Featured , Ford , GM , Toyota | Comments (0) | digg this | Seed Newsvine