Edmunds.com Forecast: Housing Market Woes Continue to Affect October Car Sales
October 30, 2007

October’s new vehicle sales are expected to be 1.24 million units, a 2.4 percent increase from October 2006 on an unadjusted basis, according to a forecast by Edmunds.com. Automakers will report October sales results on Thursday.

This October had 26 selling days, one more than October 2006. When adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 1.6 percent from October 2006. (The chart below sets forth other adjusted and unadjusted comparisons.)

"Sales are strong for vehicles at the far ends of the price spectrum, as consumers affected by the housing market bust seek bargains while luxury buyers are largely untouched," observed Jesse Toprak, Edmunds’ executive director of industry analysis. “Meanwhile, sales of midrange vehicles like large cars and minivans are suffering."

There’s little shocking about October’s sales forecast. Honda’s continued steady growth can be largely attributed to the newly redesigned Accord, while Nissan’s year-over-year boost is due to particularly weak October sales last year.

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors domestic nameplates is estimated to be 51.9 percent in October 2007, down from 55.1 percent in October 2006 and unchanged from 51.9 percent in September 2007.

Edmunds.com predicts:

Chrysler will sell 152,000 units in October 2007, down 4.5 percent compared to October 2006 and down 4.6 percent from September 2007. This would result in a new car market share of 12.3 percent for Chrysler in October 2007, down from 13.2 percent in October 2006 and up slightly from 12.2 percent in September 2007.

Ford will sell 177,000 units in October 2007, down 15.7 percent compared to October 2006 and down 3.4 percent from September 2007. This would result in a market share of 14.3 percent of new car sales in October 2007 for Ford, down from 17.3 percent in October 2006 and up from 14.0 percent in September 2007.

GM will sell 314,000 units in October 2007, up 5.4 percent compared to October 2006 and down 6.4 percent from September 2007. GM's market share is expected to be 25.3 percent of new vehicle sales in October 2007, up from 24.6 percent in October 2006 and down slightly from 25.6 percent in September 2007.

Honda will sell 121,000 units in October 2007, up 9.3 percent from October 2006 but down 4.9 percent from September 2007. Its market share is expected to be 9.7 percent in October 2007, up from 9.1 percent in October 2006 and unchanged from 9.7 percent in September 2007.

Nissan will sell 87,000 units in October 2007, up 16.3 percent from October 2006 and down 7.3 percent from September 2007. Nissan's market share is expected to be 7.0 percent in October 2007, up from 6.2 percent in October 2006 and down slightly from 7.2 percent in September 2007.

Toyota will sell 200,000 units in October 2007, up 6.0 percent from October 2006 and down 5.9 percent from September 2007. Toyota's market share is expected to be 16.1 percent in October 2007, up slightly from 15.6 percent in October 2006 and down slightly from 16.3 percent from September 2007.

	Change from October 2006 (Adjusted for less selling days)	Change from October 2006 (Unadjusted for less selling days)
Chrysler	-8.2%	-4.5%
Ford	-18.9%	-15.7%
GM	1.3%	5.4%
Honda	5.1%	9.3%
Nissan	11.9%	16.3%
Toyota	2.0%	6.0%
Industry Total	-1.6%	2.4%

Source: Edmunds.com

Posted by Michelle Krebs at 12:27 PM under Analysis , Chrysler , Ford , GM , Technology , Toyota | Comments (0) | digg this | Seed Newsvine