2007 Biggest Losers, Winners, Movers and Shakers Predicted by Edmunds.com
December 11, 2007

SANTA MONICA, Calif. -- With 11 months of vehicle sales reported, the biggest losers and winners –- and those brands that are on the move to new sales rankings –- are being predicted by Edmunds.com’s analysts.

The biggest losers for 2007 look to be: Ford division; Isuzu; Buick; Hummer; Toyota’s Scion; and Jaguar.

The biggest winners for 2007 likely will be Mazda, Lincoln and Mitsubishi, all of which have surpassed total 2006 sales in just the first 11 months of the year.

Biggest Losers

The half-dozen brands that look to be the big losers for 2007 have been performing far worse in 2007 than they did in 2006. All six have achieved less than 80 percent of their sales for the entire year of 2006. No way will they make up the losses in the single month of December.

At the end of the first 11 months, Ford Division looked to be the biggest loser in sheer volume. Its 11-month sales are at 78 percent of total 2006 sales. This comes despite: Ford redesigning and resurrecting the Taurus nameplate (previously known as the Five Hundred); restyling and renaming the Taurus X, which was the Freestyle; and hot sales of the Escape and its hybrid counterpart. The Escape is so hot Ford is trying to figure out ways to boost production of it at its Kansas City, Missouri, plant.

At the same time, the midsize SUV segment, once dominated by the Explorer, is soft. Worse for Ford, the full-size pickup market is struggling due to the economy, the housing crisis and higher gas costs. Plus, Ford's F-150 is in its last year in its current form; the 2009 model will be introduced at the Detroit auto show in January.

Isuzu sales are at 77 percent of total 2006 sales. At a scant 6,606 vehicles sold so far this year, one wonders how the Japanese brand stays in business in the U.S. and why it bothers. How can it possibly sustain a dealer network?

Despite all of the hoopla around the hot-selling Enclave, Buick remains in the doldrums, Buick sales are at 71 percent of full-year 2006 sales. GM absolutely must find a way to wave the Enclave magic over Buick's other models.

No surprise Hummer is slumping. It is an anachronistic brand that seems out of place in this time of environmental sensitivity. Yet, General Motors is determined to keep the brand alive with new models. On Tuesday, GM unveiled the Jeep Wrangler-fighting Hummer HX, a concept for a new kind of Hummer that will be on display at the Detroit auto show. Part of the reason GM has to sustain Hummer is that the automaker encouraged its dealers to invest millions in stand-alone facilities; now it must feed that network. 

Toyota’s Scion wound down its previous models and introduced some new ones, including a new version of the xB. Many have suggested the Scion is going too mainstream with the xB “Camryized” as one young designer-to-be called it.

And Jaguar –- it’s been the big loser for a few years now. That’s why Ford has put the brand on the auction block. That sale should be a done deal in early 2008, along with Land Rover.

Source: Edmunds.com

Big Winners

Mazda, Lincoln and Mitsubishi look to be the big winners of 2007. All have already surpassed total 2006 sales in just the first 11 months of this year.

The lesson here: it’s the product, stupid!

Mazda, which represents a classic turnaround tale based on new models, already is at 101 percent of 2006 sales. Thanks to rising gas prices, the Mazda3 has been hot, hot, hot this year. In fact, by the end of October, Mazda3 sales had surpassed full-year Mazda3 sales in 2006. Mazda’s new crossovers, the CX-7 and CX-9, which recently won Motor Trend's SUV of the Year award, have also given the brand a major boost.

Lincoln is proof of what new models can do for a brand as it, too, is at 101 percent of 2006 sales. The crossover MKX deserves most of the credit. And Lincoln has more new models coming onstream, including the newly introduced MKS.

Mitsubishi has to be the global turnaround story of the year. At the end of November, it was at 104 percent of 2006 sales. The small Lancer has pitched in big time, riding the sales surge in fuel-efficient cars.

Movers and Shakers

On the strength of the newly introduced Acadia crossover (the sibling to the Buick Enclave and Saturn Outlook), GMC division looks like it will speed by Jeep for the No. 8 spot in brand rankings.

Chevrolet remains well ahead of Toyota, a gap unlikely to be made up in December, but Toyota made huge gains on Chevrolet this year.

Analysis provided by Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds.com manager of pricing and market analysis.

1 – Ford Taurus
Photo by Ford

2- Hummer HX concept
Photo by GM

3 – Mazda CX-9
Photo by Mazda

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