November Vehicle Sales: Could Have Been Worse

November Vehicle Sales: Could Have Been Worse

November car and truck sales weren't great, but, in light of current circumstances, they could have been worse, concluded Edmunds.com's analysis of November sales figures reported by automakers Monday.

Jesse Toprak, executive director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com, noted the retail market, despite the weakening economy, the fallout from the housing market and higher energy prices, remained relatively stable this November compared with the last one.

“We’re seeing modest gains though not robust ones,” he said. “We’re still doing fairly well considering the market and macroeconomic issues.

While the domestic automakers have seen sales drop, they are sticking to their guns about keeping incentive spending lower, a good thing, according to Edmunds.com. “The domestics are doing a much better job of forecasting sales and keeping incentive spending in check than they were before,” said Toprak.

Likely due to high gas prices, small is selling -- small cars, small sport utilities, small hybrids. Crossovers, more fuel-efficient than large and mid-size SUVs, also are flourishing in the current climate, Toprak noted.

European luxury automakers seem unfazed by the market conditions, he added.

Here's a rundown of the top six automakers selling in the U.S.

GENERAL MOTORS

General Motors had been on a roll in recent months, bucking the trend of the soft industry by reporting higher sales. But that momentum came to a screeching halt in November with GM reporting November sales off 11% for the year.

"The biggest surprise this month is GM, making bigger than expected cuts in fleet sales,"  said Edmunds.com's Toprak. GM has been cutting fleet sales over the past couple years and expects them to stabilize at current levels next year.

The Good

Despite the dismal sales month, two GM brands are up for the year to date. GMC sales are 4.4% higher in the 11 months of this year compared with last year; Saturn sales are up 7.9%. GMC and Saturn were the only two domestic brands to see higher sales in 2006 as well.

GM’s small car sales continue to do well. Chevrolet Aveo sales soared 57.8% higher in November, pushing them nearly 12% higher for the calendar year to date. Chevrolet Cobalt sales rose 29.6% in November, putting sales so far this year 7.5% ahead of last year. The success of its two small cars enabled the Chevrolet car line to post a 2.5% increase in November.

The just-introduced Chevrolet Malibu had sales down 12.5% in November. GM has warned that total Malibu sales will be down because it is intentionally keeping the new sedan out of daily rental fleets. Indeed, Malibu’s retail sales were up 40%.

In addition, Pontiac’s small G5 had 48% higher sales in November. Pontiac’s entire car line sold well, with sales up 6.8% in November, although they are down 8.7% for the year to date. In November, every Pontiac car showed a sales increase except for the limited-volume GTO.

Cadillac’s CTS continued to sell well with sales up 55% in November, but about flat for the year.


The Bad

GM’s positive momentum ahs stopped, with total sales down 11% in November and 6.1% for the year.

All GM divisions posted decreases compared with November 2006.

Most alarming is the fact that Saturn, with an entirely new product line, saw November sales plunge 17% from November a year ago.

Chevrolet suffered the lowest total sales month since January.  Chevy outsold Ford division by 4,332 vehicles in November, but Toyota outsold Chevy by a whopping 20,000 vehicles.

Likewise, GMC and Cadillac, which had been enjoying momentum, posted declines in November. Cadillac was down 1.2% for the month, putting sales 5.4% lower for the year. GMC sales were down 7.7% for the month, though it remains ahead for the calendar year to date.

Also disturbing is the fact that GM trucks, which generate the bulk of GM’s earnings, had a lousy month. GMC Sierra sales were down 10% in November, pushing them 2.5% lower for the year. Chevrolet Silverado sales were off 15.7% in November, putting them 3% lower for the calendar year.

Large SUV sales, also performing well throughout the year, had a poor November. Chevrolet Tahoe, Cadillac Escalade and GMC Yukon sales were down for November and the year-to-date.

FORD

In contrast to GM, Ford, which has been suffering from its worst sales slump in history, appears it may be turning the corner. It showed bright spots in November, but still has a tough road ahead.

The Good

After suffering double-digit decreases in sales through much of the year, due in part to an intentional reduction in sales to daily rental car fleets, Ford reported sales up 0.4% in November.

Stopping the downward slide is due to the Ford division having relatively flat sales (down 0.3%) instead of the double-digit declines it has been reporting for most of this year.

However, the comparisons are a bit deceiving. November 2006 was a poor month for Ford division. So far in 2007, Ford division has averaged just over 170,000 vehicle sales per month. November sales totaled 147,310, Ford division’s lowest sales figure since January.

On the bright side, Mercury division posted a 26% increase in sales for the month, making it Mercury’s highest sales month since June. Land Rover, which is to be sold along with Jaguar in the next few months, had 2.9% higher sales, largely due to the addition of the LR2.

The Ford Escape, redesigned for the 2008 model year along with the Mercury Mariner, is performing well, with a 22.3% increase in sales in November, pushing year-to-date sales up 6.7%. In fact, Ford is looking for ways to boost production of the Escape and Mercury Mariner along with its hybrid versions at its Kansas City, Mo., plant. The Escape now outsells the Explorer, once America's best-selling SUV.

The Ford Fusion also had a good month with sales up 38.8% in November and 4.8% for the year. Good for the Fusion but not for Ford in total was the fact that the Fusion was the only Ford car to post higher sales for the calendar year to date.

The Bad

Ford will have to have more months of flat or higher sales to offset its downward slide. For the calendar year to date, Ford’s total sales remain off by double digits – 12.1% to be precise.

And it needs to get the Ford division back on track to accomplish a turnaround.

Ford only brands to post an increase in sales for the calendar year to date are the soon-to-be-gone Land Rover, with sales up 7% for the year, and Lincoln, which has sales up 12.8% for the year. Both are niche players, lacking the volume to buoy the entire company.

Lincoln seems to be losing some momentum. Sales were down 7.1% in November, marking Lincolns lowest sales month since September 2006, though Ford notes Lincoln’s retail sales were up for the 14th consecutive month. Lincoln sales are up for the year, however.

At the same time, Ford brand sales are down 14% for the calendar year to date; Ford car sales are off 29.1%, truck sales are down 6.3%.

And it was another bad month for the lucrative F-150, in its last model year in its current iteration. Ford introduces the completely redesigned 2009 F-150 at the Detroit auto show next month. F-150 sales were down 11.7% in November and are off 12.4% for the year so far.

It was also another bad month for Volvo, which Ford has decided to keep in its fold for now and raise to a luxury brand from an entry-lux division. Volvo sales in November were off 10.9%, pushing year-to-date sales 9.7% lower. Volvo hasn’t seen a 10,000-unit month since March.

CHRYSLER

Chrysler LLC reported sales down only 2% for November in the soft market. However,  Chrysler got some major struggles ongoing.

The Good

Chrysler car sales in November were up 41%, pushing them 6 percent higher for the year.  Those were helped by a continued strong showing by the Chrysler Sebring, which had 15% higher sales in November and 47% higher sales for the year to date.

Dodge brand saw a 6% sales increase in November, though its sales remain off 3% for the year.

The opposite was true at Jeep. Its sales were off 2% in November but remain 4% ahead for the year.

The Bad

Chrysler total sales were down 2% in November and are off 4% for the year.

Some of the heavy damage came in trucks. Total truck sales for Chrysler slumped 13% in November, pushing them 7% lower for the year. And that was despite rich incentives. Dodge, like other truck manufacturers, put incentives on its trucks – a breathtaking $6,000 on its Ram. Still, Ram sales were down 12% in November and 2% for the year.

The Ram is in its final year in its current form. The vastly redesigned 2009 Dodge Ram will be unveiled at the Detroit auto show next month.

Lower sales by the Chrysler division – down 13% in November and 10% for the year – also dragged down Chrysler LLC’s totals.

Disconcerting to Chrysler must be the fact that the Wrangler, blistering hot throughout the year, saw November sales dip 5%, though total Wrangler sales are up 54% for the year, thanks to the addition of a four-door version.

The just-introduced Chrysler Town & Country, redesigned for the 2008 model year, saw a 10% increase in sales in November, but sales are still off 17% for the calendar year. And, despite being brand new, the Town & country was outsold by the Honda Odyssey by 792 units in November.

The only vehicles in Chrysler’s portfolio to post sales increases for the calendar year to date are: the Chrysler Sebring; the Chrysler Crossfire (being discontinued after this model year); the Jeep Wrangler; and the Dodge Charger.

TOYOTA

Toyota sales in November were roughly flat from year ago levels, and sales for the year are up about 3.2%.

The Good

Toyota had its best ever November, though its sales increase was a scant 0.3% higher than last November.

Sales for the Toyota division were up 1.4% in November, and are running 3.2% higher for the year. Much of Toyota’s success can be attributed to the Prius hybrid. Its sales doubled in November from last year for its best month since June. In fact, Prius outsold all other Toyota and Lexus models, with the exception of Camry and Corolla.

The low-volume Toyota Land Cruiser, redesigned this year, had an unusually strong month with 614 sold, its best month since December 2004.

The Highlander appears to have finally broken out of its slump, selling 12,312 units, 3,350 more than in October.

Despite slumping sales of its competitors, including GM’s pickups, Ford’s F-Series and Nissan’s Titan, Toyota’s Tundra had a good month, with sales up 43.2% in November and 57.7% ahead for the year to date.

The Bad

November was not a good month for Lexus, which saw sales slide 7% from a year ago, though they are up 2.9% for the year. Most of the decline came in the Lexus truck line, which was off 5.7% in November and 7.6% for the year.

In general, it was not a good month for Toyota’s SUVs, with the exception of Highlander and Land Cruiser. The FJ Cruiser, 4Runner and newly redesigned Sequoia SUVs along with the Sienna minivan all had double-digit declines in November.

Tundra’s success is not rubbing off on the Tacoma. Its sales were down 17.1% in November, pushing calendar year sales 1.9% lower.

NISSAN

The Good

Nissan-brand vehicles saw sales of 70,079 units, a record for November. Still, November was a particularly poor month for Nissan compared with other months this year. Nissan brand sales have been averaging 79,000 vehicles per month. Still, Nissan-brand sales are 5.1% higher for the year than last year.

Nissan’s strength is coming from the Versa and Rogue. Versa sales were up 67.3 percent in November and even outselling the Maxima by 1,234 units. Still, it appears Versa sales could be cooling. November’s Versa sales were 5,561 units, and the car has sold under 6,000 units since April. Nevertheless, Versa sales remain a whopping 307.7% higher for the calendar year.

The new Rogue crossover contributed 5,650 units of sales to Nissan in November. It outsold all other Nissan and Infiniti trucks and SUVs including the Titan pickup.

Infiniti increased sales by 2.1% in the month; year-to-date sales are ahead 5.5%. However, the G is the only vehicle to enjoy higher sales in November. Sales of the G sedan rose 4% in November and are up 46% for the calendar year to date.

The Bad

Despite the incremental increase of 5,650 units brought on by the Rogue, Nissan trucks were only up 1% in November and are own 7.9% for the year.

The Altima and Versa are the only Nissan-brand vehicles – car or truck – to show increases in November.

The Murano had a bad month in November with sales plummeting 29%, pushing them 3.5% lower for the year. Nissan sold 3,976 Muranos, the vehicles lowest month since February 2003 when it had just launched. Nissan is introducing a redesigned Murano next year.

Nor are Nissan SUVs sales doing well. Pathfinder sales were down 26.7% in November; Xterra was off 20.4%.

On the Infiniti side, only the G sedan and QX56 posted increases for the year to date.

HONDA

The Good

American Honda sales rose 4.7% in November, setting a new record and pushing year-to-date sales up 2.7%.

American Honda’s strength is in the Honda division and with the new Accord. Honda division’s sales soared 24% in November; they are up 8.4% for the year. Honda sales are led by the new Accord, which were up 25.2% in November and are 10.8% ahead of last year. Despite the Accord being off to a fast start, the Toyota Camry still outsold the Accord by 7,044 units in November.

Strong Accord sales are rubbing off on the Civic. Civic sales were up 24.8% in November, putting it 3.3% ahead of a year ago. The Civic Hybrid also did well with sales up 46.6% in November and 1.4% ahead for the year.

The Fit continued its success with sales more than doubling in November and nearly doubling for the year. Honda sold exactly 200 units of the Fit less than the Nissan sold of the Versa. The Fit and Toyota Yaris were almost even in November.

It was also another good month for the Honda CR-V. Its sales were up 1.6% in November; sales are 30.9% ahead for the year. The CR-V outsold the Toyota RAV4 by 4,144 units.

The Bad

Acura, which American Honda execs promised is being reinvented in earnest next year, continues to struggle. Total sales are down 24.9% in November and 11.1% for the year. Every Acura showed a sales decline in November. Only the MDX and RDX are up in sales for the calendar year.

The Honda Pilot had its lowest sales month since Edmunds.com began tracking the vehicle in 2002. November sales plummeted 43.7%; sales for the year are down 22.5%. The current Pilot is reaching the end of its life. Word is the next-generation Pilot will be unveiled at the Detroit auto show.

Of all Honda trucks and SUVs, only the CR-V is on track for higher sales for the year.

Analysis provided by Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds.com manager of pricing and market analysis.

Photos by the manufacturers

1 - Chevrolet Malibu

2 - Ford Fusion

3- Chrysler Sebring

4 - Toyota Highlander

5 - Nissan Rogue

6 - Honda Accord

Michelle Krebs:  is Editor-in-Chief of AutoObserver.com. Follow @AutoObserver on Twitter.