Edmunds.com Forecast: Better Car Sales in February than January

Edmunds.com Forecast: Better Car Sales in February than January

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — February car sales likely will be off some from year-ago levels but improved from dismal January when automakers report them Monday, according to a forecast by Edmunds.com.

February’s new-vehicle sales are expected to be 1.22 million units, a 2.3 percent decrease from February 2007 but a 16.8 percent increase from last month.

"The month is proving better than some industry watchers may have expected," observed Jesse Toprak, Edmunds.com’s executive director of Industry Analysis. “This month should exceed the typical 10 to 15 percent boost in sales from January, historically the slowest car-sales month of the year.”

February renews an old theme: Market share for the domestics, still battling to close the gap between reality and perception on quality and raise awareness of their offerings, fell while the major Japanese players enjoyed gains.

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors domestic nameplates is estimated to be 51.9 percent in February 2008, down from 55.1 percent in February 2007 and down from 52.1 percent in January 2008.

Edmunds.com’s company-by-company forecast shows:

Chrysler will sell 163,000 units in February 2008, down 6.7 percent compared with February 2007 and up 18.9 percent from January 2008. This would result in a new-car market share of 13.4 percent for Chrysler in February 2008, down from 14.0 percent in February 2007 and up slightly from 13.1 percent in January 2008.

Ford will sell 191,000 units in February 2008, down 6.7 percent compared with February 2007 and up 22.6 percent from January 2008. This would result in a new-car market share of 15.6 percent of new car sales in February 2008 for Ford, down from 16.4 percent in February 2007 and up from 14.9 percent in January 2008.

GM will sell 280,000 units in February 2008, down 9.5 percent compared with February 2007 and up 11.3 percent from January 2008. GM's market share is expected to be 22.9 percent of new-vehicle sales in February 2008, down from 24.7 percent in February 2007 and down from 24.1 percent in January 2008.

Honda will sell 118,000 units in February 2008, up 7.4 percent from February 2007 and up 19.9 percent from January 2008. Honda’s market share is expected to be 9.7 percent in February 2008, up from 8.8 percent in February 2007 and up from 9.4 percent in January 2008.

Nissan will sell 90,000 units in February 2008, up 5.2 percent from February 2007 and up 17.0 percent from January 2008. Nissan's market share is expected to be 7.3 percent in February 2008, up from 6.8 percent in February 2007 and even at 7.3 percent in January 2008.

Toyota will sell 202,000 units in February 2008, up 7.9 percent from February 2007 and up 17.6 percent from January 2008. Toyota's market share is expected to be 16.6 percent in February 2008, up from 15 percent in February 2007 and up slightly from 16.5 percent in January 2008.

February 2008 has 25 selling days, one more than February 2007. When adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 6.2 percent from February 2007. The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.

Source: Edmunds.com

Michelle Krebs:  is Editor-in-Chief of AutoObserver.com. Follow @AutoObserver on Twitter.