April Auto Sales: Buyers Continue Shift to Smaller Cars and SUVs
By Michelle Krebs April 28, 2008SANTA MONICA, Calif. – As gas prices skyrocket, the biggest growth in April vehicle sales
are expected to be in small cars and small SUVS. In total, April vehicle sales likely will show a decline from April of last year but increase from this past March, according to a forecast by Edmunds.com.
Automakers are expected to report new vehicles sales, including fleet sales, of 1.3 million units for April, a 2.2 percent decrease from April 2007 and a 3.7 percent increase from March 2008, Edmunds.com predicts. April 2008 had 26 selling days, two more than last April 2007. When adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 9.7 percent from April 2007.
“It’s clear that gas prices are weighing heavily on car-buyers’ minds," observed Jesse Toprak, Edmunds.com’s executive director of Industry Analysis. “We predict that this month, the segments with the most year-over-year growth will be compact SUVs and compact cars at 52 percent and eight percent, respectively.â€
Conversely, the segments that are falling the hardest are large cars and midsize SUVs at 19 percent and 17 percent, respectively. âIt is likely that the large SUV market arenât losing as many buyers because those that remain in that segment actually need the functionality of a very large vehicle,â Toprak said.
The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors domestic nameplates could slide below the 50-percent mark again in April; it did so in July last year. Big Three share is estimated by Edmunds.com to come in at 49.8 percent for April, down from 54.2 percent in April 2007 and up slightly from 49.5 percent in March 2008.
Edmunds.com predicts the following for the Big Six manufacturers selling in the U.S.:
Chrysler will sell 160,000 units in April 2008, down 16.8 percent compared to April 2007 and down 3.1 percent from March 2008. This would result in a new car market share of 12.3 percent for Chrysler in April 2008, down from 14.5 percent in April 2007 and even at 12.3 percent in March 2008.
Ford will sell 206,000 units in April 2008, down 6.7 percent compared to April 2007 and down 7.3 percent from March 2008. This would result in a new car market share of 15.8 percent of new car sales in April 2008 for Ford, down from 16.6 percent in April 2007 and down from 16.4 percent in March 2008.
GM will sell 282,000 units in April 2008, down 8.5 percent compared to April 2007 and up 0.2 percent from March 2008. GM's market share is expected to be 21.7 percent of new vehicle sales in April 2008, down from 23.2 percent in April 2007 and up from 20.8 percent in March 2008.
Toyota will sell 215,000 units in April 2008, up 2.1 percent from April 2007 and down 1.3 percent from March 2008. Toyota's market share is expected to be 16.5 percent in April 2008, up from 15.8 percent in April 2007 and up slightly from 16.1 percent in March 2008.
Honda will sell 138,000 units in April 2008, up 9.3 percent from April 2007 and down 0.4 percent from March 2008. Hondaâs market share is expected to be 10.6 percent in April 2008, up from 9.5 percent in April 2007 and up slightly from 10.3 percent in March 2008.
Nissan will sell 88,000 units in April 2008, up 24.1 percent from April 2007 and down 17.5 percent from March 2008. Nissan's market share is expected to be 6.8 percent in April 2008, up from 5.3 percent in April 2007 and down from 7.9 percent in March 2008.
Nissan is shaping up to be an interesting story for the year. For the second consecutive month, Nissan has gained the most market share of any major brand. Altima, Murano, Sentra and Versa all are selling well despite the economy. That said, Nissanâs anticipated double-digit year-over-year gains this month could be partially attributed to the fact that last April was the companyâs worst sales month in three years.
|
Change from April 2007 (Adjusted for more selling days) |
Change from April 2007 (Unadjusted for more selling days) |
Chrysler |
-23.2% |
-16.8% |
Ford |
-13.9% |
-6.7% |
GM |
-15.6% |
-8.5% |
Honda |
0.9% |
9.3% |
Nissan |
14.6% |
24.1% |
Toyota |
-5.7% |
2.1% |
Industry Total |
-9.7% |
-2.2% |
Source: Edmunds.com
Photo by Nissan
Nissan Versa
LEAVE A COMMENT
The best thing that can happen to the U.S. auto industry, and to the economy as a whole, is a new, stronger revaluation of the American dollar. If the U.S. greenback rises, the price of fuel--which, like most things, is priced in American dollars--will fall, and the current fuel-crisis mentality gripping the auto industry will dissolve in a hurry. Of course, there are other things going on, too: OPEC's stubborn refusal to increase oil production to reasonable levels and a desperate lack of refining capacity (due in part to excessive environmental regulation) are just two of them. But the single best thing that can happen for the auto industry is for the U.S. dollar to regain favour on world currency markets. Let's hope that happens soon.
I think the best thing for the auto industry is for the price of fuel to steadily increase. Petroleum is running out, no doubt about it, and slow steady price increases now are preferable to a sudden, massive and permanent price increase sometime in the near future.
Interesting that the other Japanese makes (Honda and Nissan) are gaining sales whilst Toyota is treading water (-5.7 or +2.1% dpeending on how you view it).Toyota's image as being a maker of reliable but boring cars will slow it down. Nissan, Honda, Mazda and Subaru are Japanese makes that are reliable and have some fun - whether that be design, performance and/or handling.
In Canada we already buy 55 percent compact and smaller cars. The segment is very competitive and this is what the US market will look like sooner rather than later.
The fact that a Chevy Cobalt gets much worse gas mileage than a Civic and Corolla translated into Civic and Corolla dominating this segment. The Civic is 10 years bestselling car in Canada with the Corolla close behind. It also helps that both cars are manufactured here in Ontario, Canada.
When GM decides to focus on fuel economy and get rid of their old pushrod engines, people will take notice. GM saves over $1000 on every vehicle they sell with these antique, noisy motors. They are addicted to the savings. Notice how Ford, Honda, and Toyota have moved to the more expensive and fuel efficient DOHC designs.
GM has dropped to about 22 percent of the market and is also dropping in the Canadian market also. I used to buy their cars in the 80's but until they build a car that needs limited repairs for 10 years, has a modern engine, top in class fuel efficiency, and good resale value then I and thousands of others will continue to shun them.
ADD A COMMENT