June Sales Drop Prompts Edmunds.com to Lower '08 Forecast
June 26, 2008

SANTA MONICA, Calif. - June car and truck sales will show another drop from year-ago levels and even from dismal May sales, according to a forecast issued Thursday by Edmunds.com, parent of AutoObserver.

"There is still uncertainty in the marketplace, and we have no reason to believe gas prices will decrease in the short term," said Jesse Toprak, Edmunds' executive director of Industry Analysis. "Due to these conditions, we've lowered our 2008 sales forecast from 15.5 million units to 14.9 million units."

Edmunds.com predicts when automakers will report combined sales (fleet and retail) of 1.2 million units next week.

This June has 24 selling days, three less than June 2007. When adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 6.3 percent from June 2007. On an unadjusted basis, June sales will be off 16.7 percent from June a year ago and 13.3 percent from dismal May sales.

Company by Company

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors domestic nameplates is estimated to be 45.4 percent in June, down from 51.4 percent in June 2007 but sup lightly from the historic low of 45.3 percent in May.

Edmunds.com's forecast calls for five of the Big Six automakers to report lower sales than a year ago; only Honda is expected to show an increase. Some analysts predict Toyota will outsell GM in June. However, GM's launch of 72-Hour Zero Percent Financing sale may keep GM in front of Toyota.

On a company-by-company basis, Edmunds.com forecasts the following sales performance based on unadjusted sales:

GM will sell 240,000 vehicles in June, down 25.2 percent compared to June 2007 and down 10.8 percent from May 2008. GM's market share is expected to be 19.9 percent of new vehicle sales in June, down from 22.2 percent in June 2007 but up from the historic low of 19.4 percent in May.

Chrysler will sell 126,000 vehicles, down 31.2 percent compared to June 2007 and down 15.0 percent from May. This would result in a new car market share of 10.4 percent for Chrysler in June, down from 12.6 percent in June 2007 and down slightly from 10.7 percent in May 2008.

Ford will sell 181,000 vehicles in June, down 24.8 percent compared to June 2007 and down 15.2 percent from May. This would result in a new car market share of 15.0 percent of new car sales in June 2008 for Ford, down from 16.6 percent in June 2007 and down slightly from 15.3 percent in May.

Toyota will sell 217,000 vehicles in June, down 11.7 percent from June 2007 and down 15.7 percent from May. Toyota's market share is expected to be 18.0 percent in June 2008, up from 17.0 percent in June 2007 but down from 18.5 percent in May.

Honda will sell 147,000 vehicles in June, up 4.0 percent from June 2007 but down 12.8 percent from May. Honda's market share is expected to be 12.1 percent in June 2008, up from 9.7 percent in June 2007 and even at 12.1 percent in May 2008.

Nissan will sell 85,000 vehicles in June, down 7.5 percent from June 2007 and down 15.4 percent from May. Nissan's market share is expected to be 7.1 percent in June, up from 6.4 percent in June 2007 but down slightly from 7.2 percent in May.

Source: Edmunds.com

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