No Recovery in Car Sales Next Year, Forecast Says
By Michelle Krebs September 26, 2008By Michelle Krebs
DEARBORN, Mich. -- Automakers are likely to close 2008 selling only 14 million new vehicles sold for the year and 2009 will not be much better, according to the latest predictions from forecasting firm Global Insight.
The firm predicts the industry will sell 14.1 million new vehicles in 2009. "Anything above 14.1 million next year is a bonus. There's no recovery next year so plan for that," Rebecca Lindland, Global Insight's director of The Americas, advised officials from auto companies, auto suppliers and auto-dependent businesses crammed into a hotel ballroom here for the firm's annual economic outlook conference this week.
George Magliano, Global Insight's director of North America, said the U.S. auto industry, which has already gone through a major inventory correction particularly in the truck segment this year, has yet-another correction to make likely in the third or fourth quarter of next year before a sales recovery occurs.
"The years of 2010 and 2011 are the Holy Grail for automakers to get to a recovery. But it'll be a tough go between now and then," Magliano said.
Beyond that time, Global Insight predicts significantly higher sales, more on par with recent good years. In fact, Global Insight is forecasting steady year-over-year sales increases from 2010 through 2015, when more than 17.5 million vehicles are expected to be sold.
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