Global Insight Lowers Auto Sales Forecast for Next Few Years
By Michelle Krebs October 2, 2008
The forecasting firm Global Insight has lowered its forecast for auto sales for this year and and the next few years after this past week's financial events and September's car sales reports.
Global Insight Analyst Rebecca Lindland confirmed Thursday that the firm had lowered its forecast for 2008 auto sales to 13.8 million vehicles, a forecast that likely will be lowered even further to 13.6 million.
What's worse, while the firm didn't predict a recovery next year, it had expected sales to hold steady or be a tad better than 2008. But now it has lowered its 2009 forecast below 2008's. And even 2010, previously thought to be the first year of recovery, doesn't look that good at 14.5 million units. For 2011, Global Insight forecasts annual sales of 15.5 million units.
Only last Thursday at the firm's economic outlook conference held in Dearborn, Michigan, and covered by AutoObserver, Global Insight predicted 2008 sales would total 14 million vehicles and 2009 would be a touch better at 14.1 million.
The "Holy Grail" of recovery of 2010 and 2011, as Global Insight Analyst George Magliano called it last week, appears to be pushed off further into the future. For 2010, the firm has dropped its forecast of 15 million sales in 2010 to 14.5 million.
Global Insight's Lowered Forecast
2008 13.6-13.8 million from 14.0 million
2009 13.4 million from 14.1 million
2010 14.5 million from 15 million
2011 15.5 million from 15.8 million
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