October Auto Sales to Be the Lowest Since January 1992, Edmunds.com Forecasts
By Michelle Krebs October 23, 2008SANTA MONICA, Calif. - October auto sales are turning out to be every bit as bad as
forecasters predicted early in the month.
Edmunds.com forecasts October new vehicle sales, including fleet and retail, will again fall below the 1-million mark to 872,000 vehicles sold - about 30 percent below October 2007. October 2008 will mark the U.S. auto industry's lowest sales level since January 1992.
And the industry should brace itself for a terrible November, typically one of the lowest sales months of the year.
"The typical Columbus Day weekend boost was almost imperceptible this year," noted Jesse Toprak, Edmunds.com's executive director of industry analysis. "Looking ahead, November is traditionally one of the worst sales months of the year, and December is usually one of the best. If the election and other variables don't have a significant impact on auto sales through December, we are looking at an annual total of about 13.6 million units."
The industry is singing the same sad tune only with the volume cranked up: the economy is deteriorating, credit is tightened, consumer confidence has collapsed and customers are steering clear of dealer showrooms.
Edmund.com calculates that October sales will be down 28.9 percent from October 2007. When adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 31.6 percent from October 2007. This October had 27 selling days, one more than October 2007. October also will be down from dreadful September by 9.4 percent.
The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 45.5 percent in October 2008, down from 52.5 percent in October 2007 and down from 52.9 percent in September 2008, Edmunds.com predicts. The record low was set in July this year at 42.4 percent.
The frenzied speculation about the future of Detroit's automakers, ranging from mergers to bankruptcies, surely adds to the consumer's retreat from buying a car. Yet, Toyota's intensive marketing of zero-percent financing has had some impact, boosting the company's U.S. market share to over 19 percent for the first time ever.
Company-by-Company Forecast
On a company-by-company basis of the Big 6 automakers, Edmunds.com predicts:
Chrysler again will fall below the 100,000 sales mark. The troubled automaker will sell 90,000 units in October, down 38.1 percent compared to October 2007 and down 16.0 percent from September. This would result in a new car market share of 10.3 percent for Chrysler in October, down from 11.8 percent in October 2007 and down from 11.1 percent in September.
Ford will sell 124,000 vehicles in October, down 34.7 percent compared to October 2007 and up 4.9 percent from September. This would result in a new car market share of 14.2 percent of new car sales in October for Ford, down from 15.5 percent in October 2007 and up from 12.3 percent in September.
GM will sell 183,000 units in October, down 40.7 percent compared to October and down 35.5 percent from September. GM's market share is expected to be 21.0 percent of new vehicle sales in October, down from 25.1 percent in October 2007 and down from 29.4 percent in September 2008.
Toyota will sell 167,000 units in October, down 15.5 percent from October 2007 and up 15.7 percent from September. Toyota's market share is expected to be 19.1 percent in October, up from 16.1 percent in October 2007 and up from 15.0 percent in September.
Honda will sell 95,000 units in October, down 17.2 percent from October 2007 and down 1.6 percent from September. Honda's market share is expected to be 10.9 percent in October, up from 9.4 percent in October 2007 and up from 10.0 percent in September.
Nissan will sell 60,000 units in October, down 29.2 percent from October 2007 and up 0.9 percent from September. Nissan's market share is expected to be 6.9 percent in October, even from 6.9 percent in October 2007 and up from 6.2 percent in September.
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