February Car Sales: Consumers Sit the Month Out Again
February 26, 2009
By Michelle Krebs
SANTA MONICA, Calif. -- The still-deteriorating economy and the continued uncertainty about employment kept consumers away from buying new cars again in February despite the record-breaking deals available to them.
February car sales, to be posted by automakers Tuesday, are expected to be down about 40 percent from a year ago to 685,000 vehicles sold for the month, according to Edmunds.com, parent of AutoObserver.com.
That puts the closely watched Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) for the month at 9.3 million vehicles, down from 9.6 million the previous month.
"The fluctuation in car sales and the instability of the stock market are just two examples of the volatility in the marketplace, which is wreaking havoc on consumer confidence and hampering any economic recovery," said Jesse Toprak, Edmunds.com's executive director of Industry Analysis.
The SAAR had somewhat stabilized during the last four months, noted Toprak. "But now we anticipate another decline in February."
About the only silver lining is the fact that total vehicles sales in February were a tad higher than those in dismal January, traditionally the lowest sales month of the year. Industry sales improved 4.6 percent from January to February, Edmunds.com's analysis shows. Still, the increase was less than the normal January-to-February hike, one of the factors used to calculate the SAAR.
Record Incentives
Even attractive incentives failed to lure consumers into buying. Edmunds.com's preliminary estimates show incentives in February set a new monthly record and were the highest since July 2005.
February marked the highest incentive levels of any month ever for Chrysler and Hyundai, and the highest February for most others, including Ford, General Motors, Honda, Nissan and Toyota.
But the rich incentives did little good particularly for Toyota, which was the only one of the Big Six automakers to see a drop in sales from January to February -- a drop of about 5 percent.
Clearly, the plight of the auto industry cannot be blamed solely on the mistakes of Detroit automakers, but rather is caused by lagging demand for new vehicles across the board.
Consumers are holding onto their current vehicles increasingly longer. Edmunds.com's analysis shows the average trade-in now is nearly six years old; the age of its counterpart five years ago was a more than a year younger. Improved quality and durability of the vehicles built by automakers have made holding onto vehicles longer possible.
The Sales Forecast Breakdown
For February, the combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors domestic nameplates is estimated to be 44.2 percent. That's down from 52.2 percent in February 2008 but up from 43 percent in January 2009.
Edmunds.com forecasts the following February sales for each company:
Chrysler will sell 67,000 vehicles, down 55 percent from February 2008 but up 9.1 percent from January. This would result in a new car market share of 9.8 percent for Chrysler in February 2009, down from 12.8 percent in February 2008 but up from 9.4 percent in January.
Ford will sell 96,000 vehicles, down 49.6 percent compared to February 2008 but up 5.5 percent from January. This would result in a new car market share of 14.1 percent of new car sales in February for Ford, down from 16.3 percent in February 2008 but up slightly from 14 percent in January 2009.
GM will sell 139,000 units, down 48.4 percent compared to February 2008 but up 8.4 percent from January. GM's market share is expected to be 20.3 percent of new vehicle sales in February, down from 23.1 percent in February 2008 but up from 19.6 percent in January 2009.
Honda will sell 75,000 units, down 34.8 percent from February 2008 but up 5.9 percent from January. Honda's market share is expected to be 11 percent in February 2009, up from 9.9 percent in February 2008 and up from 10.8 percent in January.
Nissan will sell 55,000 vehicles, down 35.6 percent from February 2008 but up 3.1 percent from January 2009. Nissan's market share is expected to be 8.1 percent in February 2009, up from 7.4 percent in February 2008 and down slightly from 8.2 percent in January 2009.
Toyota will sell 111,000 vehicles, down 38.8 percent from February 2008 and down 5 percent from January 2009. Toyota's market share is expected to be 16.3 percent in February 2009, up from 15.6 percent in February 2008 but down from 17.9 percent in January 2009.
February 2009 had 24 selling days, one less than last February 2008. When adjusted for this difference, total U.S. vehicle sales decreased 38.9 percent from February 2008.
|
|
Change from February 2008 (Adjusted for fewer selling days) |
Change from February 2008 (Unadjusted for fewer selling days) |
|
Chrysler |
-53.1% |
-55.0% |
|
Ford |
-47.5% |
-49.6% |
|
GM |
-46.2% |
-48.4% |
|
Honda |
-32.1% |
-34.8% |
|
Nissan |
-32.9% |
-35.6% |
|
Toyota |
-36.3% |
-38.8% |
|
Industry Total |
-38.9% |
-41.4% |
Source: Edmunds.com
Posted by Michelle Krebs at 10:13 AM under Analysis , Chrysler , Companies , Featured , Ford , GM , Toyota | Comments (0) | digg this | Seed Newsvine
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