Forecasters Slash Outlook for 2009 U.S. Car Sales
By Michelle Krebs February 27, 2009With another month of dismal sales predicted for February, three forecasts released this week revise U.S. car sales for 2009 downward.
- Edmunds.com has cut its forecast by more than a million units to 10.1 million vehicle sales for 2009.
- J.D. Power and Associates has shaved its forecast by a million vehicles as well. The company puts 2009 sales at 10.4 million vehicles, down from the previous forecast of 11.4 million.
- Even Ford Motor Co., which had one of the rosier forecasts, reported in government documents that it had reduced its downside outlook for the year to 10.5 million vehicles, the same amount GM said it had conservatively estimated.
Automakers post their February car sales reports on Tuesday. They are expected to show industry sales down about 40 percent from a year ago with the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) at 9.3 million vehicles, down even further from January's 9.6 million, according to AutoObserver's parent, Edmunds.com.
J.D. Power is estimating roughly the same for February sales. "The crisis in the automotive market continues to worsen, but we believe we are nearing the bottom of this cycle," said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates. "Our expectation is for February or March to be the low point, but a high degree of uncertainty and risk remains for the second half of 2009 if the various factors that are currently impacting automotive sales do not improve or stabilize."
In its filings with the government's Securities and Exchange Commission Thursday, Ford lowered the bottom end of its annual industry forecast to 10.5 million cars and trucks sold in the U.S this year, down by 1 million. Most analysts had considered Ford's forecast far too optimistic. It had expected the downside scenario to be 11.5 million vehicles.
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So sales are down 40% at present. This would mean sales in the neighborhood of 6 million if we extend that out to an annual figure and yet we are being told sales will be 10 million??? Someone is intoxicated or isn't seeing the reality of what is going on. This is an economic collapse in progress and no one is willing to face reality or admit to the severity of the situation. We're also hearing 'we'll see an upturn in the 4th quarter of this year." Yeah right!!!! Bernanke and Paulson have lied since the beginning. I'm storing food and planting a garden. They were laughing at me 6 mos. ago when i said this but it's not looking so fanatical now. Check back with these words in another 6 mos. and see how fanatical the comments look then. Until then, well, best wishes. You're gonna need 'em.
So sales are down 40% at present. This would mean sales in the neighborhood of 6 million if we extend that out to an annual figure and yet we are being told sales will be 10 million??? Someone is intoxicated or isn't seeing the reality of what is going on. This is an economic collapse in progress and no one is willing to face reality or admit to the severity of the situation. We're also hearing 'we'll see an upturn in the 4th quarter of this year." Yeah right!!!! Bernanke and Paulson have lied since the beginning. I'm storing food and planting a garden. They were laughing at me 6 mos. ago when i said this but it's not looking so fanatical now. Check back with these words in another 6 mos. and see how fanatical the comments look then. Until then, well, best wishes. You're gonna need 'em.
What makes Edmunds, J.D. Power and the D3 geniuses think sales will make 10MM SAAR? Do they think March will be any better?
All one needs to do is follow the employment numbers and house prices to see there will be well under that forecast for car sales in 2009.
I would even go so far as to forecast under 10MM through 2010. This will NOT be a V-shaped recovery.
Get real with the numbers.
the sales prior to the downturn were at 1.4 to 1.6 million so 60% of that or in other words a 40% reduction in that is 900k to 1 million or so. If the trend continues then we're aiming at 1million annual sales not 6 million DUHHH!!!
the author of the above comment lack serious knowledge about numbers first (600k vs. 6 million) then lack knowledge about past us sales data. Just the kind of comments I hate to see. ANNOYING!
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