GM's Future Fuel Economy Estimates Drop in New Federal Aid Application
By John O'Dell February 27, 2009
Citing the possibility of an ongoing increase in sales of larger, less-efficient cars and trucks as one factor, General Motors Corp. has revised its future average fuel economy numbers sharply downward in its most recent application for federal aid.
Small cars like the future Chevy Spark may not help GM meet next decade's fuel economy standards.
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The New York Times reports today that GM said in its application last week for an additional $12 billion in federal aid that it expected its 2013 model-year passenger cars to be averaging 33.7 mpg and its light trucks for the same model year to average 23.8 mpg.
In its original aid filing, in December, the automaker estimated calendar-year 2012 fuel economy at 37.3 mpg for cars and 27.5 mpg for trucks.
The revisions represent a 9.6 percent drop in passenger car fuel economy and a 13.4 percent decline in light truck efficiency.
GM told the newspaper that the declines represent the change from an estimate based on calendar year expectations (GM will be selling 2013 and even some 2014 models in 2012) to one based on model year plans.
Limiting the fuel economy estimates to 2013 model-year vehicles eliminates the impact of other model-year cars and trucks that would be sold in 2012.
A GM spokesman told the Times that the company's optimism about future fuel economy also has been affected by the decline in interest in small cars and slight rebound in sales of larger, less-efficient vehicles as gasoline prices have fallen from their summertime highs of more than $4 a gallon.
The automaker has always taken the position that it must give consumers what it perceives they want, even if those desires require increased production of heavier vehicles with larger, less-efficient engines.
Environmentalists have argued that it is incumbent on GM and other automakers to stress fuel efficiency, even if that means deliberately limiting availability of trucks and large cars and SUVs if the industry can't figure out ways to make them meet fuel efficiency standards.
John O'Dell, Senior Editor
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So maybe they pay the fines for noncompliance, or exhorbitantly mark up the prices of less efficient vehicles.
What is with car companies selling next year's models this year? I can see them selling next year's models after September of this year, since that's traditionally when the new model year begins. But selling 2010 models in January of 2009 is pushing the limit of credulity, and certainly selling 2014 models in 2012 has crossed the line. What's stopping any car company from marketing, say, a 2042 model year car in 2009?
I think the best advice I have for GM is Varible Valve Timing, Direction, and a 6AT. That will make for one hot 4cyl engine! Maybe 2-2.5liters too. 150hp and 200hp if turbocharged and thats going to be a killer engine. My guess is also 24City 36Highway.
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