Rapid Pace of Job Losses Not Seen Since 1974, Conference Board Says
By Michelle Krebs February 9, 2009The Conference Board's latest measurement of job losses shows a further fall in January, indicating a rapid pace of job losses and persistence in those job losses for several more months.
"The Employment Trends Index has recently been declining faster than at any time since the 1974 recession," said Gad Levanon, senior economist at The Conference Board, in a statement.
"Such declines suggest considerable job losses will persist for several more months," Levanon added. "It is becoming clearer that the continued worsening economic conditions are forcing many companies to make further downward adjustments to their workforce."
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly. The index now stands at 96.6, down 1 percent from the December revised figure of 97.5, and down 18.6 percent from a year ago.
The 18-month-long decline in the Employment Trends Index is seen in all eight of its components, most notably over the past six months in temporary-help hires and part-time workers for economic reasons. Other components of the index include initial unemployment claims, job openings, industrial production, real manufacturing and trade sales, and consumer confidence as measured by people saying they find jobs hard to get.
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