Study Short-Circuits Chevy Volt as GM Stock Yo-Yos
March 02, 2009
By Bill Visnic
Shares in General Motors Corp. got on board for another broad U.S. stock market plunge Monday as a new study from researchers at uber-egghead Carnegie Mellon University says electricity-intensive hybrids such as GM's Chevrolet Volt "extended-range" electric vehicle won't be the ultimate environmental answer GM touts.
The Carnegie Mellon study, reported on by Edmunds Green Car Advisor Friday, is another setback for battered GM, whose stock price last week briefly visited a low -- $1.52 -- not seen since just after the Great Depression and today was again struggling to stay above the $2 mark as the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid to its own new lows. GM last week also reported an annual loss for 2008 of $30.9 billion, an amount exceeded in GM corporate history only by the $38 billion GM lost in 2007.
When U.S. auto sales for February are reported tomorrow, it is expected all major automakers' sales will once again be pummeled, and data experts at AutoObserver parent Edmunds.com predict GM's February sales will be off more than 45 percent compared with February 2008 -- although increased slightly compared with the prior month's dismal results.
GM has pointed to the Volt as a beacon of hope as it struggles to survive the withering drop in sales the deteriorating U.S. economy has forced on the auto industry. But the Carnegie Mellon study -- created by professors in the departments of engineering and public policy, civil and environmental engineering and mechanical engineering -- paints a less-optimistic picture for the Volt, which they say will be a less cost-effective solution than more conventional hybrid-electric vehicles at the driving distances between recharges for which the Volt has been designed.
Specifically, the Carnegie Mellon researchers found that the economic equation for plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles -- a category of dual-powered hybrids in which the Volt generally fits -- will be largely dependent on the capacity of expensive batteries the vehicle employs.
The study found that "small-capacity" PHEVs, those with smaller battery packs than the Volt and other PHEVs designed to run on electricity for long distances, indeed can be less expensive than standard hybrids when recharged at frequent intervals of 20 miles or less -- implying an "urban" type of duty cycle.
For longer-distance driving between 20 and 100 miles -- the Volt is designed to operate 40 miles strictly on electricity supplied by its large-capacity batteries -- the Carnegie Mellon engineers say conventional hybrids are a more cost-effective solution. They did note, however, that PHEVs such as the Volt would have less greenhouse-gas emissions.
The researchers said a combination of factors could improve the cost-benefit equation for PHEVs -- but only those designed for shorter electric-only driving capability. Damningly, they say even higher fuel prices, potential carbon taxes and reduced costs for advanced battery technology do not improve the economic case for "large-capacity" PHEVs such as the Volt.
"High fuel prices, low-cost batteries, or high carbon taxes combined with low carbon electricity generation would make small-capacity PHEVs cost-effective for a wide range of drivers," the researchers write.
"In contrast," the study continues, "increased battery specific energy or carbon taxes without decarbonization of the electricity grid would have limited impact. Large-capacity PHEVs sized for 40 or more miles of electric-only travel are not cost-effective in any scenario, although they could minimize GHG emissions for some drivers and provide potential to shift air pollutant emissions away from population centers."
These are similar to arguments GM rival Toyota Motor Corp. has made to defend its development of PHEVs with less battery capacity and a shorter electric-only driving range than GM's Volt.
Photo by GM
The Chevrolet Volt is due to go on sale in November 2010.
Posted by Michelle Krebs at 8:22 AM under Analysis , GM , Technology | Comments (0) | digg this | Seed Newsvine
Leave a comment