June Sales To Hit 10 Million SAAR; Detroit Share Improves, Edmunds.com Forecasts
June 25, 2009
SANTA MONICA, Calif. - June vehicle sales will hit their highest level of 2009 with a
Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate of 10.1 million when manufacturers report them Wednesday, Edmunds.com
forecasts.
"The SAAR is finally back in double-digits," observed Jesse Toprak, Edmunds.com's executive director of Industry Analysis. "We're still a long way from 16 million unit sales, but things are moving in the right direction.
General Motors and Chrysler, which both were in Chapter 11 bankruptcy during the month, are expected to post market share gains in June compared with May, proving yet-again -- contrary to conventional wisdom -- that consumers will, indeed, buy cars from a bankrupt manufacturer, at least in these current tumultuous times.
Honda and Hyundai also are forecasted to show May-to-June market share gains. The gains come at the expense of share declines for Ford, Nissan and Toyota. Despite Ford's dip, the share for Detroit automakers is estimated to come in at 47.0 percent in June, up from 46.6 percent in June 2008 and from 46.5 percent in May.
New vehicles sales, fleet and retail, will total 887,000 units for June, a 25.3 percent decrease from June 2008 and a 3.9-percent decline from May, Edmunds.com forecasts. Adjusted for the difference in selling days - June had 25 compared with 24 in June 2008, the decline is 28.3 percent from year-ago sales levels.
Category Re-Mix
Last June, gas prices were soaring to record heights, creating an atypical mix of vehicle categories. "Last year's record gas prices caused the vehicle category mix to be heavily weighted towards anything gas efficient," said Edmunds.com's Toprak.
This June has settled into a more normal mix. In fact, compact cars this June likely dropped more than any other segment from June 2008 while SUVs, trucks and bigger cars staged a comeback.
"It's interesting to note that of the six vehicle categories with the lowest year-to-year drops five are SUVs or trucks. The only car category to see a low year-over-year drop is large cars."
Premium luxury cars, minivans, large SUVS and subcompact cars, in that order, are the only categories to show a May-to-June hike.
"Families are rediscovering minivans as the most practical and least costly way to transport people and things," Toprak said, adding that heavy incentives on them enhance their value proposition.
Big 7 Forecast
Edmunds.com, parent of AutoObserver.com, predicts the following sales and market share for the Big 7 automakers:
Chrysler will sell 83,000 vehicles, down 29.1 percent from June 2008 and up 5.3 percent from May, for a market share of 9.4 percent, down from 9.9 percent in June 2008 and up from 8.5 percent in May.
Ford will sell 147,000 vehicles, down 15.6 percent from June 2008 and down 7.7 percent from May, for a market share of 16.6 percent , up from 14.7 percent in June 2008 and down from 17.2 percent in May.
GM will sell 187,000 vehicles, down 28.9 percent from June 2008 and down 2.1 percent from May, for a market share of 21.1 percent, down from 22.1 percent in June 2008 and up from 20.7 percent in May.
Honda will sell 99,000 vehicles, down 31.4 percent from June 2008 and up 1.3 percent from May, for a market share of 11.2 percent, down from 12.2 percent in June 2008 and up from 10.7 percent in May.
Hyundai/Kia will sell 67,000 vehicles, down 14.7 percent from June 2008 and down 6.0 percent from May, for a market share of 7.5 percent, up from 6.6 percent in June 2008 and up from 6.8 percent in May.
Nissan will sell 57,000 vehicles, down 24.2 percent from June 2008 and down 14.8 percent from May, for a market share of 6.5 percent, up slightly from 6.4 percent in June 2008 and down from 7.3 percent in May.
Toyota will sell 138,000 vehicles, down 28.7 percent from June 2008 and 9.7 percent from May, for a market share of 15.5 percent, down from 16.3 percent in June 2008 and down from 16.5 percent in May.
|
|
Change from June 2008 (Adjusted for more selling days) |
Change from June 2008 (Unadjusted for more selling days) |
Change from May 2009 (Unadjusted for fewer selling days) |
|
Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep) |
-31.9% |
-29.1% |
5.3% |
|
Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo) |
-19.0% |
-15.6% |
-7.7% |
|
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn) |
-31.7% |
-28.9% |
-2.1% |
|
Honda (Acura, Honda) |
-34.2% |
-31.4% |
1.3% |
|
Hyundai (Hyundai, Kia) |
-18.1% |
-14.7% |
6.0% |
|
Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan) |
-27.2% |
-24.2% |
-14.8% |
|
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) |
-31.5% |
-28.7% |
-9.7% |
|
Industry Total |
-28.3% |
-25.3% |
-3.9% |
Source: Edmunds.com
Posted by Michelle Krebs at 6:45 AM under Analysis , Chrysler , Companies , Featured , Ford , GM , Toyota | Comments (0) | digg this | Seed Newsvine
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