August Car Sales: Wild Roller Coaster Ride
By Michelle Krebs August 27, 2009Thanks to the government's Cash-For-Clunkers program, new-vehicle sales bounced around throughout the month of August, one of the most volatile periods in automotive history. Edmunds.com predicts the annualized sales rate could land at just more than 13 million for the month.
"Cash for Clunkers sent the sales rate on a wild roller coaster ride," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. She said the Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of sales exceeded 19 million in late July - the peak of Cash-For-Clunkers selling - and fluctuated around the 15-million mark in early August. But the SAAR has plunged to an 8-million rate in the post-Clunkers final days of the month.
"Ending August on such a low note does not bode well for September," Caldwell warned.
Edmunds.com's week-by-week analysis of the closely-watched SAAR shows it hit a near-record of more than 19 million in the last week of July, when the government's Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS) program was at fever pitch. As Cash-For-Clunkers was nearing its end on Aug. 24, the SAAR jumped back back to 15 million.
Edmunds.com forecasts August's new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) will come in at 1,160,000 units when automakers report sales next week. That would be a 6.7 percent decrease from August 2008 and a 16.8 percent increase compared with last month. The 13 million SAAR Edmunds.com forecasts would be this year's highest for any month.
August sales reports will show Hyundai Motor America and Ford Motor Co. were the biggest winners in the Cash-For-Clunkers contest as they likely will report significant growth compared with last August. Hyundai Group, including Kia, is set to have a Clunkers-fueled record month, beathing its last record by a long shot.
In contrast, some automakers couldn't really make Cash-For-Clunkers work for them, and their August sales suffered as a result. Chrysler Group LLC and General Motors Co. - both hurt by extended factory shutdowns during their Chapter 11 proceedings - had limited inventory to feed Cash-For-Clunkers demand, while high-end automakers didn't have the right products for these buyers.
The Numbers
The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and GM domestic nameplates is estimated to be 41.7 percent in August, down from 45.7 percent in August 2008 and down from 44.2 percent in July.
On a company-by-company basis, Edmunds.com predicts the following:
Chrysler will sell 86,000 vehicles, down 21.6 percent compared to August 2008 and down 3.0 percent from July, resulting in a market share of 7.4 percent, down from 8.8 percent in August 2008 and down from 8.9 percent in July.
Ford will sell 185,000 vehicles, up 21.6 percent compared to August 2008 and up 13.3 percent from July for a market share of 15.9 percent, up from 12.2 percent compared with August 2008 and down from 16.4 percent in July.
GM will sell 213,000 units, down 30.7 percent compared to August 2008 and up 13.2 percent from July for a market share of 18.4 percent, down from 24.7 percent in August 2008 and down from 18.9 percent in July.
Honda will sell 137,000 vehicles, down 6.7 percent from August 2008 and up 19.5 percent from July for a market share of 11.8 percent, flat compared to August 2008 and up from 11.5 percent in July.
Hyundai (with Kia) will sell 108,000 vehicles, up 63.2 percent from August 2008 and up 44.2 percent from July for a market share of 9.3 percent, up from 5.3 percent in August 2008 and up from 7.5 percent in July.
Nissan will sell 89,000 vehicles, down 18 percent from August 2008 and up 24.8 percent from July. Nissan's market share is expected to be 7.7 percent, down from 8.7 percent in August 2008 and up from 7.2 percent in July.
Toyota will sell 209,000 vehicles, down 1.2 percent from August 2008 and up 19.5 percent from July. Toyota's market share is expected to be 18 percent, up from 17 percent in August 2008 and up from 17.6 percent in July.
August had 26 selling days, one less than last August 2008. (The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.)
|
|
Change from August 2008 (Adjusted for fewer selling days) |
Change from August 2008 (Unadjusted)
|
Change from July 2009
|
|
Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep) |
-18.6% |
-21.6% |
-3.0% |
|
Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo) |
26.3% |
21.6% |
13.3% |
|
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn) |
-28.1% |
-30.7% |
13.2% |
|
Honda (Acura, Honda) |
-3.1% |
-6.7% |
19.5% |
|
Hyundai (Hyundai, Kia) |
69.4% |
63.2% |
44.2% |
|
Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan) |
-14.8% |
-18.0% |
24.8% |
|
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) |
2.6% |
-1.2% |
19.5% |
|
Industry Total |
-3.3% |
-6.9% |
16.6% |
Source: Edmunds.com
PHOTO:
Hyundai (Genesis Coupe shown) and Kia were leading beneficiaries of the Cash-For-Clunkers program, with Edmunds projecting August to be a record sales month for the Hyundai Group in the U.S. (courtesy Hyundai Motor America)
LEAVE A COMMENT
So CARS has succeeded in tapping some pent-up demand. If the dramatic reduction in SAAR at the end of August is any measure, this may not bode well for the rest of the year. Go Ford and especially Hyundai for offering the right products at the right time.
Not surprised by the results, especially in the Government Motors corner. The people I know who participated in the CFC program were getting rid of their GM vehicles, not buying new ones...
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