September Car Sales on Track for 9.3 Million Rate, Edmunds.com Forecasts
September 24, 2009
September's hangover from August's Cash for Clunkers program appears to be easing.
New vehicle sales for the month are expected to total 742,000 units, off 22.9 percent from September 2008 and down 41.1 percent from August when Cash for Clunkers was in full swing, according to Edmunds.com's forecast. That would put the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of sales at 9.34 million vehicles. Automakers report U.S. sales on Oct. 1.
"The aftereffects of Cash for Clunkers are still being felt: a significant number of September sales were pulled ahead into August, and many September shoppers left showrooms empty-handed after finding low inventories and high prices," said Edmunds.com CEO Jeremy Anwyl. "However, the industry's sales rebound is gaining momentum, so there is room for a small upside surprise on sales announcement day."
September Sales Trajectory
September's sales trajectory was exactly the opposite of last September's.
By the time September 2008 rolled around, auto sales were softening. Still, sales were were stronger in the first half of the month than the second half. The Sept. 14, 2008, collapse of Lehman Brothers, along with Bank of America's buyout of Merrill Lynch on the same day, sent Wall Street, the credit markets and the global economy reeling. Auto sales slowed.
This September, by contrast, started at new lows. Cash for Clunkers, which sent the SAAR soaring to the year's high of 14.1 million last month, ended Aug. 25, and showrooms immediately fell silent. Dealers complained they were seeing no shoppers.
Edmunds.com saw the SAAR plummet to 8.3 million in the week immediately after Cash for Clunkers expired. The party payback continued into the first couple of weeks in September. Had sales numbers continued on that track, Edmunds.com expected the SAAR to come in under a 9-million rate, which would have been the lowest rate of the year.
However, by mid-month, car sales were regaining some equilibrium.
Sales Trends
Of the Big 7 automakers, only the Hyundai Group (comprised of the Hyundai and Kia brands) is expected to show a September year-to-year increase in sales. The Korean brands have been gaining momentum all year and are forecasted to increase September sales in the 10- to 15-percent range compared with a year ago.
General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC, which emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in early summer, continue to struggle. Both are forecasted to report year-to-year sales declines close to 40 percent.
Sales declines for Ford Motor Co., Toyota Motor Corp., Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. and Honda Motor Co. Ltd. likely will be significantly smaller.
Combined market share for General Motors, Ford and Chrysler is estimated at 42.8 percent, down from 53.2 percent in September 2008 and up from 41.1 percent in August.
Clunker Hangovers
All of the Big 7, who gained the most from Cash for Clunkers, are projected to suffer severe hangovers in September, with sales declines from August in the 38-percent to 52-percent range.
Company-by-Company Forecast
Edmunds.com predicts for September the following:
Chrysler will sell 55,000 vehicles, down 48.7 percent from September 2008 and down 40.7 percent from August for a market share of 7.4 percent, down from 11.1 percent in September 2008 and equal to August.
Ford will sell 110,000 vehicles, down 9.7 percent from September 2008 and down 38.6 percent from August for a market share of 14.9 percent; that share is up from 12.7 percent in September 2008 and up from 14.3 percent in August.
GM will sell 152,000 vehicles, down 46.1 percent from September 2008 and down 37.8 percent from August for a market share of 20.6 percent; that share is down from 29.4 percent in September 2008 and up from 19.5 percent in August 2009.
Toyota will sell 130,000 vehicles, down 9.7 percent from September 2008 and down 42.1 percent from August for a market share of 17.6 percent, up from 15 percent in September 2008 and down from 17.9 percent in August.
Honda will sell 89,000 vehicles, down 8.3 percent from September 2008 and down 45.1 percent from August for a market share of 11.9 percent, up from 10.0 percent in September 2008 and down from 12.8 percent in August.
Nissan will sell 59,000 vehicles, down 1.1 percent from September 2008 and down 44.1 percent from August for a market share of 7.9 percent, up from 6.2 percent in September 2008 and down from 8.4 percent in August.
Hyundai/Kia will sell 48,000 vehicles, down 14.9 percent from September 2008 and down 51.9 percent from August for a market share of 6.5 percent, up from 4.4 percent in September 2008 and down from 8.0 percent in August.
|
|
Change from September 2008 (Adjusted for fewer selling days) |
Change from September 2008 (Unadjusted for fewer selling days) |
Change from August 2009 (Unadjusted for more selling days) |
|
Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep) |
-50.8% |
-48.7% |
-40.7% |
|
Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo) |
-13.3% |
-9.7% |
-38.6% |
|
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn) |
-48.2% |
-46.1% |
-37.8% |
|
Honda (Acura, Honda) |
-12.0% |
-8.3% |
-45.1% |
|
Hyundai (Hyundai, Kia) |
10.3% |
14.9% |
-51.9% |
|
Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan) |
-5.1% |
-1.1% |
-44.1% |
|
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) |
-13.3% |
-9.7% |
-42.1% |
|
Industry Total |
-26.0% |
-22.9% |
-41.1% |
Source: Edmunds.com
September has 25 selling days, one more than last September. When adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 26.0 percent from September 2008.
Posted by Michelle Krebs at 6:09 AM under Analysis , Chrysler , Companies , Featured , Ford , GM , Toyota | Comments (1) | digg this | Seed Newsvine
14.1 M SAAR to 9.3 SAAR is pretty bad, anyway you slice and dice it.
Posted by: maitlandking | September 24, 2009 at 12:55 PM