September on Track to Be Year's Lowest for Car Sales
By Michelle Krebs September 17, 2009Suffering from a Cash for Clunkers hangover after August's party, September is on track to be the year's lowest rate of car sales, Edmunds.com forecasts.
"The best month of the year for car sales is being quickly followed by what could be the worst month of the year," said Edmunds.com CEO Jeremy Anwyl. "Cash for Clunkers was supposed to prime the pump, but that is a physics concept, and economics is quite different. Demand has dropped off significantly since the program ended."
Edmunds.com forecasts the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of sales in September will plummet to 8.8 million for the year's lowest rate following the year's highest rate of 14.1 million in August.
Based on the current rate of sales, we anticipate that September's SAAR will be 8.8 million units, said Edmunds.com Senior Statistician Zhenwei Zhou.
"Last year, when the bottom was falling out of the economy, the September SAAR was 12.5 million. Prior to that it had been over 16 million for years," he said. "Many people thought February was the darkest month of the recession, but even then the SAAR was higher, at 9.1 million units."
Post Cash for Clunkers SAAR
|
|
SAAR |
Clunker Sales as % of Total Sales |
|
August 25-31 |
8.3 million |
6.4% |
|
September 1-5 |
8.9 million |
3.6% |
|
September 6-12 |
8.7 million |
3.3% |
Source: Edmunds.com
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C4C just stole sales from the future at the cost of taxpayer money.
Is this supposed to be surprising?
Look for 4th quarter numbers to be just as low, meaning that full-year sales will fall below 10 million units. Ironically, 10 million units is what the Detroit BK 2 said was needed to ensure profitability in 2009.
Since GM isn't publicly traded, we won't know whether the new GM made any money this year unless they tell us. If they did, they will. If they didn't, they'll probably keep that fact to themselves.
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