October Is Year's Best Non-Clunker Month for Car Sales, Edmunds.com Forecasts
October 29, 2009
October car sales are expected to come in at the highest level of the year except for during the summer's frenzied Cash for Clunker months, Edmunds.com forecasts.
Industry sales, being reported on Tuesday, are expected to total 830,000 vehicles, almost even with a year ago and up 11.4 percent from September. That would push October's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) to 10.35 million, up from 9.19 in September.
""There are clear signs that the automotive industry is finally starting to recover from the painful lows experienced earlier this year,"said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds.com's director of Industry Analysis.
Market Share Shifts
General Motors is expected to achieve its highest market share for the year - 21.5 percent -- as its hefty investment in incentives and marketing pays some dividend. Ford's market share is hovering in the same range it has for the past year.
However, Chrysler, which next week makes public its five-year plan under Fiat auspices, has lost 3.5 points of market share in the past year. Meantime, Hyundai Group, including the Hyundai and Kia brands, has gained the biggest chunk of what Chrysler has lost.
Combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and GM is expected to come in at 44.7 percent in October, according to Edmunds.com's forecast. That's down from 47.4 percent in October 2008 and up from 44.5 percent in September.
|
|
Forecast Market Share October 2009 |
ActualMarket Share October 2008 |
Actual Market Share September 2009 |
|
Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep) |
7.8% |
11.3% |
8.3% |
|
Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo) |
15.4% |
15.8% |
15.2% |
|
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn) |
21.5% |
20.3% |
20.9% |
|
Honda (Acura, Honda) |
10.7% |
10.3% |
10.4% |
|
Hyundai (Hyundai, Kia) |
6.2% |
4.4% |
7.1% |
|
Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan) |
7.7% |
6.8% |
7.4% |
|
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) |
17.2% |
18.2% |
16.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
Source: Edmunds.com
Company by Company
On a company-by-company basis, Edmunds.com forecasts the following sales and market share performance for October:
GM will sell 179,000 vehicles, up 5.7 percent from October 2008 and up 14.8 percent from September for a market share of 21.5 percent, up from 20.3 percent in October 2008 and up from 20.9 percent in September.
Ford will sell 128,000 vehicles, down 3.5 percent from October 2008 and up 12.6 percent from September for a market share of 15.4 percent, down from 15.8 percent in October 2008 and up from 15.2 percent in September.
Chrysler will sell 65,000 vehicles, down 31.4 percent from October 2008 and up 4.3 percent from September for a market share of 7.8 percent, down from 11.3 percent in October 2008 and down from 8.3 percent in September.
Toyota will sell 143,000 vehicles, down 6.2 percent from October 2008 and up 13.2 percent from September for a market share of 17.2 percent, down from 18.2 percent in October 2008 and up from 16.9 percent in September 2009.
Honda will sell 88,000 vehicles, up 2.9 percent from October 2008 and up 14.4 percent from September for a market share of 10.7 percent, up from 10.3 percent in October 2008 and up from 10.4 percent in September 2009.
Nissan will sell 64,000 vehicles, up 12.7 percent from October 2008 and up 15.8 percent from September for a market share of 7.7 percent, up from 6.8 percent in October 2008 and up from 7.4 percent in September.
Hyundai/Kia will sell 50,000 vehicles, up 38.3 percent from October 2008 and down 5.5 percent from September for a market share of 6.1 percent, up from 4.4 percent in October 2008 and down from 7.1 percent in September 2009.
October 2009 had 28 selling days, one more than October 2008. When adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 4.1 percent from October 2008. The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.
|
|
Change from October 2008 (Adjusted for more selling days) |
Change from October 2008 (Unadjusted for more selling days) |
Change from September 2009 (Unadjusted for more selling days) |
|
Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep) |
-33.8% |
-31.4% |
4.3% |
|
Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo) |
-6.9% |
-3.5% |
12.6% |
|
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn) |
2.0% |
5.7% |
14.8% |
|
Honda (Acura, Honda) |
-0.8% |
2.9% |
14.4% |
|
Hyundai (Hyundai, Kia) |
33.4% |
38.3% |
-5.5% |
|
Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan) |
8.6% |
12.7% |
15.8% |
|
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) |
-9.6% |
-6.2% |
13.2% |
|
Industry Total |
-4.1% |
-0.6% |
11.4% |
Posted by Michelle Krebs at 4:59 AM under Analysis , Chrysler , Featured , Ford , GM | Comments (2) | digg this | Seed Newsvine
10M looks good compared to the rest of the year but is awful in the context that the US used to sell at 15-16 M SAAR for most of this decade.
Posted by: maitlandking | October 30, 2009 at 10:17 AM
Official Sales figures will arrive by Wednesday, I believe, from the auto industry. Think GM did a terrific job. 'May The Best Car Win?' is working and advertising is reaching its peak level. Hope Detroit 3 will do even better in 2010.
Posted by: MTuzmen | October 31, 2009 at 7:16 AM