SANTA MONICA, CA — October 24, 2018 — Edmunds forecasts that 1,322,340 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in October for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.1 million. This reflects a 6.7 percent decrease in sales from September 2018 and a 2.1 percent decrease from October 2017.
"The fourth quarter is off to a slow, but not alarming, start for the auto market," said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds manager of industry analysis. "Last October, auto sales were somewhat spurred by replacement demand following Hurricane Harvey, which makes for a more complex year-over-year comparison. Rising interest rates and higher vehicle prices are also thinning the crowds of shoppers at dealerships, and that's a trend we see stretching into the new year."
Despite the headwinds the industry is facing, Edmunds experts note that auto sales remain at historically healthy levels.
"The auto market has been so strong over the last several years it's easy to forget that a SAAR over 17 million is nothing to sneeze at," Acevedo said. "But since sales are slowing, automakers and dealers will need to rally through November and December to move excess inventory off their lots. Car shoppers will likely see a slew of decent deals come this holiday sales season."
| Sales Volume | October 2018 Forecast | October 2017 | September 2018 | Change from October 2017 | Change from September 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 230,502 | 252,813 | 235,937 | -8.8% | -2.3% |
| Toyota | 192,729 | 188,434 | 203,098 | 2.3% | -5.1% |
| Ford | 189,793 | 199,698 | 196,496 | -5.0% | -3.4% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 167,507 | 153,373 | 199,819 | 9.2% | -16.2% |
| Honda | 126,581 | 127,353 | 132,668 | -0.6% | -4.6% |
| Nissan | 106,797 | 123,012 | 122,819 | -13.2% | -13.0% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 99,095 | 97,407 | 108,862 | 1.7% | -9.0% |
| VW/Audi | 47,717 | 47,157 | 49,874 | 1.2% | -4.3% |
| Industry | 1,322,340 | 1,351,127 | 1,417,190 | -2.1% | -6.7% |
**NOTE: October 2018 had 26 selling days, October 2017 had 25 and September 2018 had 25.
Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.1 million vehicles in October 2018, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.2 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.3 million used vehicles will be sold in October 2018, for a SAAR of 39.6 million (compared to 3.3 million & or a SAAR of 39.6 million & in September).
| Market Share | October 2018 Forecast | October 2017 | September 2018 | Change from October 2017 | Change from September 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 17.4% | 18.7% | 16.6% | -1.3% | 0.8% |
| Toyota | 14.6% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Ford | 14.4% | 14.8% | 13.9% | -0.4% | 0.5% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 12.7% | 11.4% | 14.1% | 1.3% | -1.4% |
| Honda | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Nissan | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | -1.0% | -0.6% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
| VW/Audi | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry/.
About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in Detroit, Michigan. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
