Automakers Launch Holiday Promotions to Offset November Sales Blues
November 19, 2009
November is living up to its reputation as one of the worst months of the year for car sales, prompting automakers to launch holiday promotions in an effort to end one of the worst years for sales on a slightly higher note.
November sales in the U.S., both retail and fleet, are expected to total 710,000 vehicles, a 4.5 percent decline from November 2008 and a 15.0-percent decrease from October, according to Edmunds.com's forecast. That would put the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) at 10.34 million vehicles, down from 10.43 million in October. Except for January, sales in November typically are the lowest of the year.
"Everyone is hopeful that Thanksgiving weekend will boost the sales numbers," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "But automakers have already launched holiday season incentives in order to pick up the pace, and that sense of desperation suggests that bigger discounts - but smaller selection - may be available for those who wait to buy."
Thanksgiving Leftovers
Edmunds.com's tracking of market share of 2009 and 2010 model year vehicles finds there is vast disparity between automakers in terms of old model year inventory. For example, fewer than 42 percent of new vehicles sold by Chrysler, General Motors, Hyundai and Nissan in October were 2010 model year, but the industry average was 59 percent.
The old inventory is heavily discounted, forcing down the price of cross-shopped 2010 models, especially new Fords. This dynamic is playing a role in automaker sales volumes since many of this season's car shoppers are focused on finding bargains and landing at the dealerships flush with 2009 inventory.
* Based on October sales
Source: Edmunds.com
Sales Breakdown
The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and GM is estimated to be 46.4 percent, down from 48.6 percent in November 2008 and up from 45.1 percent in October 2009.
For the Big 7 automakers, Edmunds.com predicts the following:
Chrysler will sell 55,000 vehicles, down 35.0 percent from November 2008 and down 15.8 percent from October for a market share of 7.8 percent, down from 11.4 percent in November 2008 and flat from 7.8 percent in October.
Ford will sell 123,000 vehicles, down 0.3 percent from November 2008 and down 8.8 percent from October for a market share of 17.3 percent, up from 16.6 percent in November 2008 and up from 16.1 percent in October.
GM will sell 151,000 vehicles, down 1.3 percent from November 2008 and down 14.2 percent from October for a market share of 21.3 percent, up from 20.6 percent in November 2008 and up from 21.1 percent in October.
Honda will sell 69,000 vehicles, down 9.1 percent from November 2008 and down 18.9 percent from October for a market share of 9.8 percent, down from 10.3 percent in November 2008 and down from 10.2 percent in October.
Hyundai (including Kia) will sell 43,000 vehicles, up 25.9 percent from November 2008 and down 19.0 percent from October for a market share of 6.1 percent, up from 4.6 percent in November 2008 and down from 6.4 percent in October.
Nissan will sell 46,000 vehicles, down 0.7 percent from November 2008 and down 23.1 percent from October for a market share of 6.5 percent, up from 6.3 percent in November 2008 and down from 7.2 percent in October.
Toyota will sell 125,000 vehicles, down 4.4 percent from November 2008 and down 18.2 percent from October for a market share of 17.5 percent, flat from 17.5 percent in November 2008 and down from 18.2 percent in October.
November has 23 selling days, two less than last November 2008. When adjusted for this difference, sales increased 3.8 percent from November 2008. The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.
|
|
Change from November 2008 (Adjusted for less selling days) |
Change from November 2008 (Unadjusted for less selling days) |
Change from October 2009 (Unadjusted for more selling days) |
|
Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep) |
-29.4% |
-35.0% |
-15.8% |
|
Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo) |
8.4% |
-0.3% |
-8.8% |
|
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn) |
7.3% |
-1.3% |
-14.2% |
|
Honda (Acura, Honda) |
-1.2% |
-9.1% |
-18.9% |
|
Hyundai (Hyundai, Kia) |
36.9% |
25.9% |
-19.0% |
|
Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan) |
7.9% |
-0.7% |
-23.1% |
|
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) |
3.9% |
-4.4% |
-18.2% |
|
Industry Total |
3.8% |
-4.5% |
-15.0% |
Source: Edmunds.com
Posted by Michelle Krebs at 4:22 AM under Analysis , Companies , Featured | Comments (0) | digg this | Seed Newsvine
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