Auto Sales Trend Higher Heading into 2010, Edmunds.com Forecasts
December 18, 2009
Vehicle sales are trending higher as 2009, one of the most tumultuous years for the industry, draws to a close.
New vehicle sales, including retail as well as fleet sales, are expected to total 1,010,000 units, a 13.3-percent increase from December 2008 and a 35.7-percent increase from November, Edmunds.com forecasts. That would put the month's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) at 11.11 million vehicles, up from 10.89 in November.
And that would put full-year annual sales at just over 10 million, a decrease of almost three million vehicles, or 21.3 percent, from 2008. That would make it the worst year for car sales since 1970 when the industry sold 10.2 million and the U.S. population was far less than it is today.
Years that came close to 2009 totals were the recession years of the early 1980s. In 1982, the U.S. industry sold 10.53 million vehicles; in 1981, 10.78 million were sold.
"Many automakers can celebrate a bright ending to a tough year this holiday season," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds.com's director of Industry Analysis. "However, the industry is still far below its comfort zone in terms of sales volume."
In the winner's column is Subaru, predicted to climb back above two percent market share and may even pass Volkswagen in annual sales. In contrast, 2009 will mark the first year since the 1960s that Chrysler will not sell one million vehicles.
Sales Breakdown
The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors is estimated to be 45.8 percent in December,, down from 50.3 percent in December 2008 and up from 45.1 percent in November.
Company by company, Edmunds.com issues the following sales forecasts for December:
GM will sell 206,000 vehicles, down 6.3 percent from December 2008 and up 37.0 percent from November, for a market share of 20.4 percent, down from 24.7 percent in December and up from 20.2 percent in November.
Toyota will sell 185,000 vehicles, up 30.2 percent from December 2008 and up 38.2 percent from November, for a market share of 18.3 percent, up from 15.9 percent in December 2008 and up from 18.0 percent in November.
Ford will sell 174,000 vehicles, up 25.1 percent from December 2008 and up 42.5 percent from November, for a market share of 17.2 percent, up from 15.6 percent in December 2008 and up from 16.4 percent in November.
Chrysler will sell 82,000 vehicles, down 7.8 percent from December 2008 and up 30.8 percent from November, for a market share of 8.2 percent, down from 10.0 percent in December 2008 and down from 8.5 percent as in November.
Honda will sell 100,000 vehicles, up 16.0 percent from December 2008 and up 35.0 percent from November, for a market share of 9.9 percent, up from 9.7 percent in December 2008 and flat from 9.9 percent in November.
Nissan will sell 70,000 vehicles, up 12.9 percent from December 2008 and up 26.0 percent from November, for a market share of 6.9 percent, down from 7.0 percent in December 2008 and down from 7.5 percent in November.
Hyundai/Kia will sell 63,000 vehicles, up 63.7 percent from December 2008 and up 37.7 percent from November, for a market share of 6.3 percent, up from 4.3 percent in December 2008 and up from 6.2 percent in November.
This December had 28 selling days, two more than December 2008. When adjusted for this difference, sales increased 5.2 percent from December 2008. The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.
|
|
Change from December 2008 (Adjusted for more selling days) |
Change from December 2008 (Unadjusted for more selling days) |
Change from November 2009 (Unadjusted for more selling days) |
|
Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep) |
-14.3% |
-7.8% |
30.8% |
|
Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo) |
16.2% |
25.1% |
42.5% |
|
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn) |
-13.0% |
-6.3% |
37.0% |
|
Honda (Acura, Honda) |
7.8% |
16.0% |
35.0% |
|
Hyundai (Hyundai, Kia) |
52.1% |
63.7% |
37.7% |
|
Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan) |
4.9% |
12.9% |
26.0% |
|
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) |
20.9% |
30.2% |
38.2% |
|
Industry Total |
5.2% |
13.3% |
35.7% |
Posted by Michelle Krebs at 4:37 AM under Analysis , Companies , Featured | Comments (0) | digg this | Seed Newsvine
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