February Sales: Toyota Share Lowest Since 2005; Hyundai, Nissan Share Highest Ever
By Michelle Krebs February 25, 2010Despite Toyota's recall woes and snowy weather covering most of the country, February 
vehicle sales will be higher this February than last year's dismal lows and also higher than January's numbers, Edmunds.com forecasts. Still, February sales weren't as strong as many had hoped or expected.
February sales reports from manufacturers, to be posted Tuesday, also will show who made sales and share gains at Toyota's expense. Toyota's sales will be about even with January and down about 10 percent from a year ago. Its market share likely will fall to 12.6 percent, its lowest level since 2005.
In contrast, Hyundai and Nissan will post their highest U.S. market shares ever, Edmunds.com predicts. Ford's share increased, while market share for General Motors and Chrysler dropped.
No Gain for "Government Motors" From Toyota
Critics have charged that the U.S. government is picking on Toyota because it owns stakes in GM and Chrysler as a result of last year's bankruptcies. However, Edmunds.com expects market share for both domestic auto companies to drop.
Ford, which steered clear of bankruptcy and did not take government funding, will see a boost in sales and market share, Edmunds.com predicts. Ford will handily outsell Toyota again this month as it did in January. Ford is well positioned to surpass Toyota in total sales for the year, something it hasn't done since 2006.
Chrysler had another bad month as it awaits a replenishment of its new product pipeline at year's end. Not only did Honda outsell Chrysler again this month as it has of late, but Nissan did as well, according to Edmunds.com's forecast. Chrysler looks to have barely eked out a lead over No. 7 ranked Hyundai in February.
February Sales Macro Trends
Edmunds.com's forecast calls for February's new vehicle sales, including fleet as well as retail sales, to total785,000 units, excluding heavy- and medium-duty trucks. That represents a 14.2 percent increase from February 2009 and a 12.9 percent increase from this January.
February's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will come in at about 10.6 million vehicles, down from 10.7 in January but well ahead of last February's pathetic 9.14 million, the lowest SAAR of 2009 and one of the lowest in decades.
Much of this February's strength is coming from fleet sales, which were nearly nonexistent for much of the early going in 2009. Coroporate fleets and daily rental companies now are replenishing their aging vehicle pools.
Still, February sales don't look as if they'll be as strong as hoped or expected. President's Day weekend saw strong sales, but those tapered off as the month wore on. Some market softness can be blamed on the Toyota recalls, which not only kept buyers away from Toyota products but generally confused the marketplace. And, of course, there was the miserable weather that socked much of the country with mountains of snow or deluges of rain.
Some automakers are worried retail buyers are not back into the car-buying game as much as they had hoped they would be by now. This week, consumer confidence remained worrisomely low as Americans fret about keeping the jobs they have and finding a job if they are unemployed.
Company by Company
Ford's predicted higher market share will not offset GM and Chrysler drops. Edmunds.com estimates the combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors at 44.5 percent in February 2010, down from 45.2 percent in February 2009 and down from 45.6 percent in January.
On a company by company basis, Edmunds.com predicts the following:
GM will sell 147,000 vehicles, up 16.2 percent from February 2009 and up 0.2 percent from January for a market share of 18.7 percent, up from 18.4 percent in February 2009 and down from 21.0 percent in January.
Ford will sell 136,000 vehicles, up 35.3 percent from February 2009 and up 18.9 percent from January for a market share of 17.3 percent, up from 14.6 percent in February 2009 and up from 16.5 percent in January.
Toyota will sell 99,000 vehicles in February 2010, down 10.1 percent from February 2009 and down 0.2 percent from January for a market share of 12.6 percent, down from 15.9 percent in February 2009 and down from 14.2 percent in January 2010.
Chrysler will sell 67,000 vehicles, down 20.2 percent from February 2009 and up 18.2 percent from January for a market share of 8.5 percent, down from 12.2 percent in February 2009 and up from 8.1 percent in January.
Honda will sell 89,000 vehicles, up 24.1 percent from February 2009 and up 31.6 percent from January for a market share of 11.3 percent, up from 10.4 percent in February 2009 and up from 9.7 percent in January.
Nissan will sell 75,000 vehicles, up 38.1 percent from February 2009 and up 19.7 percent from January for a market share of 9.5 percent, up from 7.9 percent in February 2009 and up from 9.0 percent in January.
Hyundai will sell 66,000 vehicles, up 24.7 percent from February 2009 and up 24.9 percent from January for a market share of 8.4 percent, up from 7.7 percent in February 2009 and up from 7.6 percent in January 2010.
February had the same number of selling days as February 2009. -- Michelle Krebs, Senior Analyst and Editor at Large
Analysis provided by Edmunds.com's Data Department.
LEAVE A COMMENT
Click here to comment on this entry.how is GM losing share if share was 18.4% last year and 18.7% this year? Isnt that slightly gaining share?
I believe the share they are referring to is the share drop from January 2010. That did show a decrease from 21% to an estimated 18.7%, even though it's higher than a year ago.
Separately, the most pitiful thing about Chrysler is that its dealer network dwarfs Hyundai/Kia. Locally, 5 of the 6 Chrysler dealers are struggling, while all 3 Hyundai/Kia stores are doing well.
well relative to 2009 all the big players are gaining share and Toyota is losing share.
Toyota & Honda dropped the ball on handling the recalls , they should have came forward with a full disclosure. Instead of waiting for a huge media blitz and tons of public pressure. But Toyota & Honda are not alone , I never seen so many car companies having recalls all at the same time. I had no idea my car which is not even a Toyota or Honda, was affected until I searched on http://www.carpedalrecall.com and found I had a bad Anti Lock control unit on my 2008 Pontiac G8 , So be careful
There are no safe cars, anywhere, ever. Today,s cars have an average of 14,000 parts, all ultimately human designed, fabricated, inspected and installed. Some of those humans had a bad hair day, were hung over, going through a divorce, don't speak the language of the country where they work, or just don't give a rat sass.
Congress is no doubt privately glad to have something like this to divert attention away from the national debt, health care reform, and social security.
looks like Ford overperformed, Toyota did as expected and Honda and Nissan underperformed. At least according to these estimates.
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