Ford Set to Overtake Beleaguered Toyota in 2010, Edmunds.com Predicts
February 11, 2010
Toyota's mounting product quality and public image woes have prompted Edmunds.com to 
revamp its sales forecast for 2010, lowering Toyota's share and raising the share of other automakers.
Edmunds.com's most current forecast of 11.5 million vehicle sales for 2010 has Toyota losing market share that will be picked up by Ford, General Motors and Honda.
Ford's sales gain, in fact, likely will push the American automaker to the No. 2 sales spot in 
the United States, ahead of Toyota, Edmunds.com predicts. Toyota took the No. 2 position from Ford in 2007 and has held it ever since.
"It now seems clear that Ford will overtake Toyota to reclaim its position as the second biggest automaker in the U.S. market," Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell said at the Chicago auto show.
The recalls will cost Toyota more than a full percentage point of U.S. market share, said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Ray Zhou, PhD. "We anticipate that General Motors, Ford and Honda will pick up the majority of the sales Toyota loses."
But others will gain some as well. The following chart shows Edmunds.com's reallocation of market share, based on Toyota's lower share, for the Big 7 automakers:
February: Divvying up Toyota's Share
Edmunds.com's analysis of actual transaction data from dealer sales to customers shows there will be as much or even more jousting for sales and market share position in February as there was in January.
So far in February, Toyota's market share has averaged about 13 percent. During this month, Toyota's share dipped as low as 10 percent but rose in recent days to about 15 percent.
Toyota closed 2009 with 17.0 percent of the U.S. market, up from 16.8 percent in 2008. But in January, Toyota's sales fell nearly 16 percent. Its U.S. market share plummeted to 14.1 percent, Toyota's lowest share in at least four years, according to Edmunds.com. And it could have been worse. The recall and stop-sales order on eight Toyota-brand models, including some of its bestsellers, occurred late in the month -- on January 26 -- leaving only four selling days in the month.
So far in February as was the case in January, the primary beneficiary of Toyota's lost share is Ford. Ford along with GM and Hyundai launched incentives aimed at luring would-be Toyota buyers to their brands.
Ford's share in February is averaging 16 percent, an 11 percent increase from its usual average, according to Edmunds.com's analysis of transaction data.
Ford closed 2009 with a market share of 16.0 percent, up a full percentage post and its first rise in share since the mid 1990s. In January, Ford sales rose 24 percent from the year earlier and its market share rose to 16.7 percent, 2.5 percentage points higher than January 2008.
Ford gets some added momentum with the introduction of a couple of new models that look as if they can compete head to head with Toyota models. The Ford Fiesta goes on sale by summer; Ford opens its order banks on Monday. The Ford Focus hits showrooms by fall.
Also benefiting from Toyota's woes are, in order of percentage increases: Hyundai, up 12 percent from its average; Honda, up 11 percent (it should be noted Honda did not launch incentives aimed at Toyota buyers although it has an attractive lease offer on the Insight to go against the Prius); Mazda, up 11 percent; GM, up 7 percent; and Nissan up 3 percent.
Nissan has launched a Toyota conquest campaign that runs through March 31. Rebates are available to customers who lease or buy most Nissan models and can prove they already own or lease a Toyota.
Edmunds.com's analysis of trade-ins shows the number of customers trading in a Toyota to buy another model increased for GM, Ford and Hyundai, indicating their incentives to lure Toyota buyers to their fold are working.
The trade-in increases so far this month are as follows: Chevrolet, 1.3 percent to 2.1 percent; Ford 1.1 percent to 1.9 percent; GMC, 1.5 percent to 2.6 percent; Hyundai, 3 percent to 5.5 percent; and Nissan 2.7 percent and 4 percent. Honda and Mazda saw almost no rise in Toyota trade-ins. -- Michelle Krebs, Senior Analyst and Editor at Large
Posted by Michelle Krebs at 4:32 AM under Analysis , Featured , Ford , GM , Toyota | Comments (9) | digg this | Seed Newsvine
I personally think that Hyuandai will pass Chrysler Group this year and become #6 of the big 7.
Posted by: billddrummer | February 11, 2010 at 10:52 AM
The year just started, so I suggest to Ford not to count its eggs as yet. My feeling is that Toyota will rebound and take its rightfull place as #2 in the US maket.
Posted by: mzohar | February 11, 2010 at 11:14 AM
@mzohar
Why makes Toyota the "rightful" #2 in the market? Why not #1 or #3 or something else?
Posted by: mlh | February 11, 2010 at 12:19 PM
mzohar - I echo mlh comment why is Toyota rightfully #2. If any Japanese company "should" be #2 then Honda is it. Honda make better cars - driving dynamics and styling. Toyota makes mere appliances, Honda m,akes equally reliable (if not mroe so) and they are better in other terms.
Posted by: guy1974 | February 11, 2010 at 12:38 PM
guy1974, I also think that Honda is as good as it gets, but I own 2 Toyotas for many years and they both good. My frinds at work own Hondas, and are very happy with them.
What I actully waiting for is the Nissan Leaf, all electric car, which will be in show rooms this Sept.
mlh, with all due respect for Ford, I feel that Toyota has a better product than Ford, and thats why I think that if anything Toyota should be ahead in this case.
Posted by: mzohar | February 11, 2010 at 1:20 PM
Ford really didn;t gain a lot of sales so far this month from Toyota this month but Nissan and Hyundai have gained conquests from Toyota. GMC picked up a little from Toyota in terms of conquest buyers. I think its a little odd Honda hasn;t really picked up trade-ins from Toyota this month. Honda really doesn;t do inventives unless its a poor seller like the Ridgeline pick-up.
Posted by: carguy58 | February 11, 2010 at 4:57 PM
So far this month Toyota is averaging a 13 percent market share according to this article. Thats still not too bad but they probably will be passed by Ford in total sales but than again are we counting just Ford's retail sales(thats what really matters) and not fleets. Ford sells alot more vehicles to fleets than Toyota does.
I think Honda will creep in a little bit on Toyota in terms of sales.
Posted by: carguy58 | February 11, 2010 at 5:12 PM
lets stop the song and dance about fleet sales. Hyundai and Nissan sell to fleets all the time and no one complains. Ford is about profitability and if they are delivered via fleet sales that is fine. Toyota can't compete for most government fleet sales so it will never match GM or Ford in that department. Unlike GM/Ford the imports fleet sales are mostly rental cars which are the lowest margin fleet sales.
Posted by: 1487 | February 12, 2010 at 10:27 AM
1487: your missing the point but I didn;t clarify too well so let me clarify. Ford
sales are like 35% to fleets the last couple months anyway. GM and Hyundai rental fleet are 22& of both brands sales respectively. At least Gm leanrned not too dump too many vehicles into fleets because it impacts resale value alot. I don't know what % of sales Nissan's sales are to fleets.
I think the only reason Ford is doing alot of fleet sales now is too make up for 34 million or billion dollars in debt(from what I saw on FOX NEWS)I think and not for profitability purposes.
I'm not saying selling to fleets are bad but its retail sales that matter in the end. Like I said earlier selling too much too fleets deflates a car's resale too much and some people care about resale value. I'm really not one of those people though.
Posted by: carguy58 | February 12, 2010 at 3:24 PM