Commentary: No Easy Answer for the Toyota Problem
By Michelle Krebs March 16, 2010Edmunds.com CEO Jeremy Anwyl argues in a Washington Post OpEd that the U.S. 
Transportation Department and its National Highway Traffic Safety Administration should lead in coordinating an effort to get to the bottom of the industry problem of sudden acceleration. Here's his argument as published by the paper Monday:
Lately it seems that each day brings another report of a driver's terrifying experience with an out-of-control Toyota. There have been at least four congressional hearings in as many weeks.
Even the most confident consumer has to wonder what is causing all this and, more fundamentally, whether Toyotas are safe to drive.
The second question is easier to answer. Despite the flurry of reports, incidents with speeding vehicles are rare. And vehicles today, including Toyotas, are safer than ever.
While we have heard much recently about "smart pedals," floor mats and sticky throttles, it has not been made clear what is behind the incidents of sudden acceleration. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has been investigating sudden vehicle acceleration for a few decades, but it has little new to offer since the 1989 Audi investigation. During that time the agency reported that many incidents of sudden or unintended acceleration by Audi drivers were caused when drivers stepped on the gas instead of the brake.
Ultimately, Audi and other automakers implemented features that required brakes to be depressed when shifting gears out of park, and reports of sudden acceleration when drivers started their cars dropped noticeably.
But as vehicles have become more advanced and, presumably, safer, complaints have still been logged.
As a consumer resource for automotive information, Edmunds.com has a stake in finding answers. We also have a data team that crunches numbers, and we have vehicle testers, both of which we recently assigned to help solve the mystery of unintended acceleration.
We assigned 25 staffers to review, line by line, the published consumer complaint data available on the NHTSA Web site. The database, with more than 760,000 records, is, simply put, a mess. After reading each complaint since model-year 2005, we found that 30 percent of the original complaints were miscategorized; more than 26 percent were duplicates; and hundreds were not complaints but merely comments or suggestions.
When we focused on the major automakers and limited our review to recent-model-year vehicles (2005 to present), the 52,000 complaints through September 2009 -- a fair stopping point, because it was before news reports erupted -- showed that every car company had incidents of sudden acceleration. This is not strictly a Toyota issue. NHTSA head David L. Strickland said as much when he told Congress recently that Toyota's rate of complaints was "unremarkable."
Theories about sudden acceleration broadly fall into four categories: First, some sort of electrical interference or computer glitch. Second, a general mechanical failure, such as a sticky throttle. Third, design factors such as floor mats (meaning that the vehicle was functioning correctly, but a design lapse increased the chance of an incident). Fourth, driver error, also known as pedal misapplication.
We tried to re-create the circumstances surrounding some recent incidents. We took the highest-horsepowered Toyota Camry to the test track to see if the brakes could stop a runaway vehicle -- which they can. Next we looked at the Toyota Prius. We found that when the vehicle is accelerating, a simple tap of the transmission shifter into neutral disengages the throttle, and the vehicle coasts to a halt -- even if the brakes are not applied.
What does all this mean? As our testing confirms and government regulators and Toyota have said recently, it is extremely difficult to re-create the out-of-control incidents being reported. Reports on Monday regarding a runaway Prius in San Diego were once again inconclusive. It is impossible to rule out any possibilities: electrical, mechanical, design or driver-related.
So where do we go from here? The Transportation Department and NHTSA should take the lead in coordinating an effort that involves all manufacturers. Perhaps by sharing data and working collaboratively, they can find an answer that working individually has rendered elusive.
We need to focus on the right problem. Toyota's embarrassment about communication lapses and likely government regulatory fixes miss the point. Our roads will be safer when the root cause of unintended acceleration is known.
The case for saving property and lives should be obvious. But there is another risk for consumers: Toyota's legal bill for unintended-acceleration cases will be in the billions. Soon enough, entrepreneurial lawyers will realize that other car companies are vulnerable. And who ends up covering this tab? Future car buyers -- in the form of higher prices.
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Toyota is one of the leading company in Auto manufacture. But recently Toyota is facing lots of problems. Toyota was the topmost selling company in electric cars. The Prius got tremendous response.
But last couple of week I heard, that precedent of Toyota has announced that a large no. Prius are been recall world wide. It is very socking news.
Ya it's true that their is no easy answer for Toyota Problem. But I am sure Toyota will get that answer & come over from this problems.
This may sound crazy, but does anyone even consider the possibility that someone might be sabotogeing these vehicles with or without the owners knowledge in an attempt to harm Toyota?
This could be done by computer whiz who might get a chance to physically reprogram the cars computer, which after the event in question would erase any trace of this.
Or worse, is their any possibility of a very powerful electromagnetic signal be broadcast from a nearby source that could target a specific vehicle's computer or fly-by-wire throttle?
I know this sounds far-fetched, and sci-fi, but could it even be possible?
That sounds like something I read in a Clive Cussler book.
In six months, these Toyota recalls will be ancient history. Why? Because Toyota knows how to handle customer service. Toyota owners are still loyal to Toyota. They may go through a lull in sales right now, but with a 0% financing campaign, sales will continue to rise and they will regain market share.
Your article is the first objective review of the unintended acceleration issue I have seen. There have been a lot of theories put forth as to the root cause of the problem, one I haven’t seen as yet is the existence of a Sneak Circuit. Sneak circuits were first identified by NASA during the early stages of the space program during the 60’s. The existence of sneak circuits is also a recognized phenomenon that is addressed during the development of complex military systems.
The following are excerpts from a US Navy document on “SNEAK CIRCUIT ANALYSIS - A MEANS OF VERIFYING DESIGN INTEGRITY - NAVSO P-3634.
A sneak circuit is an unexpected path or logic flow within a system which, under certain conditions, can initiate an undesired function or inhibit a desired function. The path may consist of hardware, software, operator actions, or combinations of these elements. Sneak circuits are not the result of hardware failure but are latent conditions, inadvertently designed into the system, coded into the software program, or triggered by human error. Also excluded as causative factors are electrostatic, electromagnetic or leakage paths as well as marginal parametric factors.
The basic causes of sneak circuits are: System complexity, System changes, User operations.
System Complexity - The complexity of hardware and software systems requires numerous subsystem interfaces that may obscure intended functions or produce unintended functions. Under the typical conditions of system design, it is difficult to ensure an awareness of subsystem interactions so complete that no possible variation in the flow of energy or logic, or in the actions of system operators, is overlooked.
System Changes - The effects of even minor wiring or software changes to subsystems may be undesired system operations. Because of subsystem interaction, a "fix" or corrective action that seems of only minor and local significance may produce changes in system functioning that could not reasonably have been anticipated in the design stage.
User Operations - A system that is relatively sneak-free can circumvent desired functions or generate undesired functions if the user employs improper operating methods or procedures. The cause could be simple human error on the part of the operator or inaccurate information supplied to the operator--for example, by a false indicator display or by an incorrectly labeled control.
With respect to all of these types of causes, the following generalization underscores the importance of sneak circuit analysis. As systems become more complex, the number of human interfaces multiplies because of the involvement of more design groups, subcontractors, and suppliers; the probability of overlooking potentially undesirable conditions is increased proportionately.
So where do we go from here? The Transportation Department and NHTSA could reach out to NASA and the Defense Dept where a wealth of captured learning exists relative to complex systems, keeping in mind that alot of today's everyday technologies had their origins in the space program and evolution of military systems.
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