Memorial Day Weekend Sales Expected to Boost Industry to 11.4 Million SAAR in May, Edmunds.com Forecasts
By Michelle Krebs May 27, 2010Like most Americans, the auto industry is eagerly looking forward to the Memorial Day weekend. Automakers hope history repeats itself with brisk end-of-month sales.
"So far, this month hasn't been particularly good for the car business so far, but we anticipate that the holiday weekend will more than make up for it," said Jessica Caldwell, director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com.
If that is true, Edmunds.com forecasts May industry sales will total 1,080,200 vehicles for a nearly 18-percent increase from May 2009 and a nearly 11-percent increase from April. That would put May's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) at 11.4 million vehicles, up from 11.2 million in April. The SAAR in May 2009 was 9.9 million.
Automakers report May sales on Wednesday, June 2.
Caldwell pointed out that in the past three years, Memorial Day weekend car sales were about 40 percent higher than non-holiday weekends in May. Sales on the last day of May were about 130 percent more than the average sales day.
Incentives Down from Year Ago
Automakers are using the Memorial Day holiday to heavily promote deals. In reality, the incentives are not as hefty as they were last year.
Edmunds.com's preliminary estimates show incentivesare down an average of mroe than $300 per vehicle from a year ago. Of the Big 6 automakers, only Toyota, trying to re-boot sales after numerous recalls and negative publicity, have higher incentives this May than last. The others are down from $100 to $600 per vehicle from a year ago.
However, most have higher incentives this month than in April. Of the Big 6, only Ford and Toyota have lower incentives in May than April, Edmunds.com's early estimates indicate. In fact, Ford's incentives are estimated to be down a hefty $400 per vehicle.
Company by Company Forecast
Edmunds.com estimates retail sales will account for 76 percent of the more than 1 million vehicles sold in May. The rest represent sales to corporate, government and rental-car fleets. The rate of fleet sales ran high the early part of thsi year.
Edmunds.com further forecasts the combined monthly share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors at 46.5 percent in May, up from 46.3 percent in May 2009 and up from 45.3 percent in April 2010.
Edmunds.com forecasts the following sales and market share for May by company:
GM will sell 212,800 vehicles, up 11.7 percent from May 2009 and up 15.8 percent from April, for a market share of 19.7 percent, down from 20.8 percent in May 2009 and up from 18.9 percent in April.
Ford will sell 189,000 vehicles, up 22.4 percent from May 2009 and up 16.7 percent from April for a market share of 17.5 percent, up from 16.9 percent in May 2009 and up from 16.6 percent in April 2010.
Toyota will sell 163,900 vehicles, up 7.5 percent from May 2009 and up 4.6 percent from April for a market share of 15.2 percent, down from 16.6 percent in May 2009 and down from 16.1 percent in April.
Honda will sell 117,600 vehicles, up 22.2 percent from May 2009 and up 3.4 percent from April for a market share of 10.9 percent, up from 10.5 percent in May 2009 and down from 11.7 percent in April.
Chrysler will sell 100,500 vehicles, up 27.7 percent from May 2009 and up 5.2 percent from April for a market share of 9.3 percent, up from 8.6 percent in May 2009 and down from 9.8 percent in April.
Hyundai-Kia will sell 80,300 vehicles, up 27.5 percent from May 2009 and up 8.5 percent from April for a market share of 7.4 percent, up from 6.9 percent in May 2009 and down from 7.6 percent in April.
Nissan will sell 75,100 vehicles in May, up 11.3 percent from May 2009 and up 17.9 percent from April for a market share of 7.0 percent, down from 7.4 percent in May 2009 and up from 6.5 percent in April.
|
|
Change from May 2009 |
Change from April 2010 |
|
Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep) |
27.7% |
5.2% |
|
Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo) |
22.4% |
16.7% |
|
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) |
11.7%* |
15.8% |
|
Honda (Acura, Honda) |
22.2% |
3.4% |
|
Hyundai (Hyundai, Kia) |
27.5% |
8.5% |
|
Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan) |
11.3% |
17.9% |
|
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) |
7.5% |
4.6% |
|
Industry Total |
17.9% |
10.8% |
* GM numbers include all eight brands - Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Saturn, Pontiac, Saab and Hummer -- in May 2009; May figures include its four remaining brands - Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet and GMC
Source: Edmunds.com
LEAVE A COMMENT
I'm surprised by Toyota's lack of sales growth when comparing May 2010 vs May 2009 % wise vs the industry average. I';m not surprised by Nissan % of sales growth vs the industry average because they were buying market share since the calender year started. I mean Nissan has higher incentives than Honda in general or even Hyundai the past 3 months maybe.
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