August Car Sales Hold Steady, If Not Spectacular
By Bill Visnic August 26, 2010August new-vehicle sales will remain steady at a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 11.8 million, according to data from Edmunds.com, but when totals are finalized next week, the month certainly won't be able to compare to last August's Cash For Clunkers-fueled SAAR of 14.1 million.
August new-vehicle sales (including fleet transactions) are expected to be 1,028,200 units, a 17.7-percent decrease from August 2009, when Cash For Clunkers pushed the industry to 1,261,799 sales. Total August sales will represent a 1.4 percent decrease from July 2010, according to Edmunds.com data., while August's projected 11.8-million SAAR compares with 11.5 million in July.
"Comparing to last August is a waste of time since Cash for Clunkers distorted the market so badly last year," said Jessica Caldwell, director of industry analysis for Edmunds.com "It is likely that the current slow sales pace can be partly attributed to the thousands of 'pull-ahead' sales that last year's CARS program stole from subsequent months."
August 2010 had 25 selling days, one less than last August 2009. When adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 14.4 percent from August 2009.
The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 43.4 percent in August, up from 41.2 percent in August 2009 but down from 43.8 percent in July 2010.
Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 98,100 units in August 2010, up 7.3 percent compared to August 2009 and up 6.4 percent from July 2010. This would result in a new-car market share of 9.5 percent for Chrysler in August, up from 7.3 percent in August 2009 and up from 8.8 percent as in July 2010.
Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 159,500 units in August 2010, down 10.5 percent compared to August 2009 and down 3.2 percent from July 2010. This would result in a new-car market share of 15.5 percent of new car sales in August for Ford, up from 14.3 percent in August 2009 but down from 15.8 percent in July 2010.
Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 188,100 units in August 2010, down 23.1 percent compared to August 2009 and down 5.8 percent from July 2010. GM's market share is expected to be 18.3 percent of new-vehicle sales in August, down from 19.6 percent in August 2009 and down from 19.1 percent in July 2010.
Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 116,300 units in August 2010, down 27.6 percent from August 2009 but up 3.4 percent from July 2010. Honda's market share is expected to be 11.3 percent in August, down from 12.9 percent in August 2009 but up from 10.8 percent in July 2010.
Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 76,900 units in August 2010, down 26.5 percent from August 2009 and down 6.6 percent from July 2010. Nissan's market share is expected to be 7.5 percent in August, down from 8.4 percent in August 2009 and down from 7.9 percent in July 2010.
Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 161,400 units in August 2010, down 28.3 percent from August 2009 and down 4.6 percent from July 2010. Toyota's market share is expected to be 15.7 percent in August, down from 18.0 percent in August 2009 and down from 16.2 percent in July 2010.
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Click here to comment on this entry.Ha Auto Observer: where did Hyundai/Kia numbers go? I mean Hyundai is one of the fastest growing car company's now in the US. I mean Hyundai/Kia's sales numbers are close to or as good as Chrysler/Dodge's.
Note to Autoobserver: please put Hyundai/Kia's sales numbers back on these articles please!
carguy58, your observations are correct, if we were to look back at a combined Hyundai/Kia sales figure, they would have multiple months of being close to Chrysler (even beat them once, August of 2009) and Hyundai/Kia would have beaten Nissan for the last two month. There is only one problem, Hyundai/Kia has been separated into two separate companies at Hyundai's request, if they change their minds or if Hyundai by themselves can sell more units then you might see their nameplate back on the list.
Hyundai has reduced its stake in Kia below a majority--below 40%, I think--so the companies now have a cross-ownership partnership more like Nissan and Renault (although they don't share a chairman like those two, either) or Ford and Mazda.
The companies are much more intertwined that Ford and Mazda or even Renault and Nissan. Hyundai even lists Kia as a consolidated subsidiary in their annual report. And if you add ownership in Kia by companies that Hyundai owns a majority in, Hyundai still pretty much controls Kia. But it allows them to maintain separate CAFE numbers.
Oh sorry Autoobserver I didn't know Hyundai reduced its share of Kia-my apologies to Autoobserver!
How does the projected SAAR go up from July, 2010 while actual sales go down? Each month has different expectations?
Good question about SAAR.
SAAR is a calculation derived figure and represents the rate/pace at which car sales are estimated to look like if an entire year was similar to that one specific month, think annualized projection. Just for clarification, there is no such thing as an annual SAAR; it is strictly a monthly figure/estimate
In order to get a SAAR figure one must apply the weights that each of the four categories SAAR uses (domestic cars, import cars, domestic light trucks, and import light trucks) to the actual sales figures each month. From one month to the next the weighting changes for each of the four categories, this is done to take into account the seasonal effect of automotive sales. Weighting is issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, revised weights were issued earlier this month.
If you hold everything constant for the number of units sold by each automaker and model, you can see how the SAAR moves due to the weights applied to the four categories. In theory this means that we could see a year in which one million units are sold each month and totaling twelve million, but a monthly SAAR figure that bounces between 10.0 and 14.0 (depending on the month) simply because of the weighting.
Hope this helps, SAAR can be a bit tricky with the weighting involved.
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