September Car Sales: More of the Same
By Michelle Krebs September 23, 2010
Monthly sales reports are beginning to feel like Groundhog Day; they have varied little for the past half year or so and September is no exception.
Edmunds.com estimates September sales, to be reported by manufacturers next Friday, will total 936,900 vehicles, a nearly 28-percent increase from the Cash for Clunkers hangover month a year ago. September sales are expected to decline from August by nearly 6 percent. That puts the Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 11.47 million; they were 11.44 million in August.
"Despite some noteworthy new car introductions, auto sales are stagnant right now," commented Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "Automakers seem to have accepted the current sales rate; most seem reluctant to invigorate the market through traditional incentives programs or unload significant levels of inventory as fleet sales."
Indeed, automakers aren't going overboard with spiffs.Edmunds.com estimates the average incentive this month is $2,617 per vehicle, down $84, or 3.1 percent, from August, and down $129, or 4.7 percent, from September 2009.
Nor are fleet sales overinflated this month as they were in the early months of this year. Edmunds.com estimates fleet sales accounted for about 19 percent for the month, about the same as last month. Retail share of sales remains at a SAAR of 9.4 million, the same as last month, according to Edmunds.com's forecast.
Forecasts for the Big Six
Edmunds.com estimates the combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors is estimated to be 44.8 percent in September 2010, flat from 44.8 percent in September 2009 and up from 44.5 percent in August 2010.
Edmunds.com forecasts the following September sales and market share by manufacturer:
GM will sell 171,900 vehicles, up 10.7 percent from September 2009 but down 7.1 percent from August for a market share of 18.3 percent, down from 21.2 percent in September 2009 and down from 18.7 percent in August.
Ford will sell 153,300 vehicles, up 37.9 percent from September 2009 but down 2.6 percent from August for a market share of 16.4 percent, up from 15.2 percent in September 2009 and up from 15.9 percent in August.
Toyota will sell 142,700 vehicles, up 13.4 percent from September 2009 but down 3.8 percent from August for a market share of 15.2 percent, down from 17.2 percent in September 2009 but up from 15.0 percent in August.
Honda will sell 104,900 vehicles, up 37.1 percent from September 2009 but down 3.5 percent from August for a market share of 11.2 percent, up from 10.4 percent in September 2009 and up from 11.0 percent in August.
Chrysler will sell 94,200 vehicles, up 52.3 percent from September 2009 but down 4.8 percent from August for a market share of 10.1 percent , up from 8.4 percent in September 2009 and up from 10.0 percent from August.
Nissan will sell 69,600 vehicles, up 44.4 percent from September 2009 but down 9.5 percent from August for a market share of 7.4 percent, up from 6.6 percent in September 2009 but down from 7.8 percent in August.
September had 25 selling days, the same as last September.
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