Edmunds.com Projects November SAAR of 12.2 Million
By Bill Visnic November 24, 2010It's steady as she goes for auto-industry sales in November, which on many fronts may be seen as a "no news is good news" revelation considering ongoing instability in the economy, the stock market and now, geopolitics in Korea.
Analysts at Edmunds.com, parent of AutoObserver, project November new-vehicle sales will result in a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 12.2 million, effectively the same rate as in October.
In raw numbers, November's projected new-car sales - including fleet sales - of 865,000 units is a welcome 17-percent hike compared with last November, but an 8.1-percent drop from last month. November, however, traditionally is one of the year's weakest months for new-vehicle sales.
Analysts see the November projection as indication of welcome stability in an otherwise still unsettled economy.
"Seasonal fluctuations notwithstanding, we're seeing some stability and consistency in the marketplace for the first time since the economic downturn," commented Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "The automakers have realized that they can achieve profitability at this level of sales, and they seem to be settling into that reality."
The combined monthly U.S. market share for the domestic automakers Chrysler, Ford and General Motors is estimated to be 45.5 percent in November 2010, up from 44.8 percent in November 2009 and up from 45.2 percent in October, 2010.
November 2010 has 24 selling days, one more than last November 2009. Month-over-month comparisons:
Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 75,900 units in November 2010, up 22.4 percent compared to November 2009 but down 15.4 percent from October 2010. This would result in a new-car market share of 8.8 percent - up from 8.4 percent in November, 2009, but down from 9.5 percent in October.
Ford is projected to sell 149,900 units in November 2010, up 25.6 percent compared to November 2009 but down 2 percent from October 2010. This would equate to a new-vehicle market share of 17.3 percent, up from 16.1 percent in November 2009 and up from 16.2 percent last month.
Edmunds.com projects GM will sell 167,900 units in November 2010, up 11.5 percent compared to November 2009, but down 8.5 percent from October 2010. GM's market share is expected to be 19.4 percent of new-vehicle sales in November, down from 20.3 percent in November 2009 and down from 19.5 percent last month.
Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 85,700 units in November 2010, up 16.2 percent from November 2009, but down 13.3 percent from October 2010. Honda's market share is expected to be 9.9 percent in November 2010, down from 10percent in November 2009 and down from 10.5 percent in October 2010.
Nissan is projected to sell 61,100 units in November 2010, up 10 percent from November 2009, but down 12.4 percent from last month. Nissan's market share is expected to be 7.1 percent in November 2010, down from 7.5 percent in November 2009 and down from 7.4 percent in October 2010.
Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 131,300 units in November 2010, down 1.8 percent from November 2009 and down 9.8 percent from last month. Toyota's market share is expected to be 15.2 percent in November 2010, down from 18.1 percent in November 2009 and down from 15.5 percent in October 2010.
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