Toyota Forecasts 12.5 Million Sales in 2011; Focuses on Hybrids
By Michelle Krebs January 3, 2011
Toyota executives told auto analysts today that they expect the U.S. industry to sell 12.5 million cars and trucks in 2011, about a million more than than in 2010, and that Toyota will do even better than the industry in general because of the many new models it will introduce.
"The first half of 2011 will look like the second half of 2011. We'll see good signs and some growth but other indicators that will cause us to wonder," said Bob Daly, senior vice pesident, Toyota Planning & Development. He noted Toyota's industry forecast is more conservative than others largely because stubbornly high unemployment an d a floundering housing market will hinder further growth. Edmunds.com is forecasts a somewhat higher 12.9 million cars and trucks sold in 2011.
Automakers report December and 2010 year-end sales on Tuesday. Daly predicts Lexus, which had strong end of month sales, will retain its No. 1 spot in luxury sales for the 11th consecutive year when the totals are tallied.
"It's been a very difficult year for the industry and Toyota," Daly said of the unprecedented year of recalls for Toyota and pervasive negative publicity. Toyota remains the No. 1 retailer automaker "under circumstances that would have killed off other automakers."
He pointed out that nearly a third of General Motors and Ford sales came from fleets and even more than that for Chrysler while Toyota's fleet sales remained under 10 percent.
Recall work is largely complete and customer loyalty has bounced back, he said.
In addition to a strong close of 2010 for Lexus, Toyota Prius but one of its best months in a decade in December. Also turning in strong December performances were RAV4, Highlander, Camry and Corolla.
Daly said the industry sales mix between cars and trucks, which had been tilting in favor of trucks in recent months, balanced out in December to 50-50, largely due to the rise in gas prices to an average of more than $3 a gallon.
Future Focus on Hybrids
Bob Carter, who heads the Toyota division, said 2011 will be a big year for Toyota Motor Sales, which will launch 11 new or updated Toyota, Lexus and Scion models, the first of which will be unveiled next week at the Detroit auto show. That will be a new member -- "though not the last new one" -- of the Toyota Prius family.
Toyota's focus in the future will be on hybrids and plug-in hybrids with 11 new or redesigned hybrids being launched through 2012. Those will include the new Prius models and a plug-in Prius.
"We will end the decade with Prius being the No. 1 nameplate in the industry," Carter asserted. "Camry will be a close second, and that's not because there will be a drop in Camry sales."
Toyota sees a far more limited role for completely electric vehicles than for hybrids and plug-in hybrids, though Toyota has turned to niche EV maker Tesla to develop the newest generation, electric RAV4, which Carter said will be the only electric battery SUV on the market with a more range and more utility than the electric Nissan Leaf. Toyota also will use the IQ as the basis for future electric cars.
Toyota also will focus on improvements in conventional internal combustion engines, vehicle weight reduction, low carbon synthetic fuels and advanced batteries that use magnesium instead of lithium ion. Toyota also will have a hydrogen vehicle on the market in 2015.
Back to 15 Million
Toyota's Daly said the Japanese automaker is bullish on the long-term prognosis for the U.S. auto industry."It's not a matter of if (15 million), but a matter of when."
He pointed to demographics, pent-up demand, scarcity of used cars and affordability of new cars as factors for U.S. auto growth.
"Demographics are in our favor," he said. The U.S. population through 2020 will increase by 10 percent, or 31 million people -- 8,500 people a day. The number of driving age people will increase by 24 million -- the equivalent of Texas' population.
Pent-up demand is increasing with the average vehicle age of 10 at its highest level in 13 years. At the same time, the inventory of used cars between one and five years old is declining to the point the suupplky will reach its lowest level in 27 years by 2013. That will push used-car prices higher and make new cars look like a comparative bargain.
Carter predicted Toyota will be a major beneficiary of these future trends and will capitalize on them with the introduction of a large array of new models.
LEAVE A COMMENT